MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

39-26

CLE

37-31

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

29,517 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

CLE no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.1% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
41.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.2%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.1%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.7pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +11.7pp · implied 47.4%

CLE

no live price

Book	NYY	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-127	+11.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 0.9high
Austin HedgesCLE
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 1.3high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 2.0high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
1.6± 2.6high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.0high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.9high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

CLE

.763

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.330

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.75

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 7 · CLE 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
NYY	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	7
CLE	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.227	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
B. Rice1B	.304	3	2	2	0	0	2	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.274	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.276	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. JonesRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. CaballeroSS	.253	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. McMahon3B	.211	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.172	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. SchuemannSS	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. VolpeSS	.203	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.258	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. SanchezC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	7	9	6	2	6	10

Player

.227

.304

.274

.276

.230

.250

.253

.211

.172

.250

.203

.258

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	4.1	4	3	3	2	5	91
B. HeadrickRP	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	17
P. BlackburnRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	14
R. YarbroughRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12
J. BirdRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	17
C. DovalRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	14
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
D. BednarRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	27
Team	10.0	8	5	5	6	12	202

Player

4.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.2

Team

10.0

202

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Ramirez3B	.238	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.254	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. Manzardo1B	.235	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.228	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.232	4	1	1	2	1	1	2
S. KwanCF	.216	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
P. BaileyC	.167	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.284	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.191	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. FryRF	.256	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. FairchildRF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		37	5	8	4	1	6	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	5.0	4	4	3	3	5	90
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
H. GaddisRP	0.1	3	1	1	0	0	23
C. SmithRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	22
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	2	1	2	0	16
Team	10.0	9	7	5	6	10	179

Team

NYY

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.