MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SEA

SEA

34-31

DET

26-39

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

32,606 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
43.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.7%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.6pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

DET

★ best

+174DraftKings

edge +7.6pp · implied 34.3%

Book	SEA	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-233	+174★	+7.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.4high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.6± 3.4high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
2.1± 2.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Colt EmersonSEA
0.7± 0.8high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

DET

.713

OPS

.717

.712

.316

OBP

.319

.316

4.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.93

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 4 · DET 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.259	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.254	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.285	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
L. RaleyRF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.275	4	1	3	2	1	0	1
P. Wisdom3B	.120	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Emerson3B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PeredaC	.295	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	10	4	1	1	7

Player

.250

.259

.254

.285

.253

.275

.120

.237

.295

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. MillerSP	6.0	1	0	0	2	9	94
J. FerrerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
M. BrashRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	14
Team	9.0	2	0	0	5	11	140

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
K. McGonigleSS	.288	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.238	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. CarpenterRF	.237	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. GreeneLF	.309	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Keith3B	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.215	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.168	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. JonesDH	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		27	0	2	0	0	5	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. MonteroSP	5.0	6	4	4	1	1	79
D. SommersRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	18
T. MaddenSP	2.2	4	0	0	0	3	39
Team	9.0	10	4	4	1	7	136

Team

SEA

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs SEA.