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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SF
SF

SF

25-38

12
9
MIL

MIL

37-23

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
32,570 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

MIL no-vig %

61.6%

open 60.8% · +0.8

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL65.6%56.8%MIL NO-VIG %Jun 3, 10 PMJun 4, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 12 · MIL 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF30300060012
MIL1000202139

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 67-41
61%Last 30 · 315-204
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.9pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

SF

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +32.9pp · implied 0.0%

MIL

no live price

BookSFMILBest edge
DraftKings—★-193+32.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, Jun 4·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasMIL -193

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 12–9.

SF +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 12.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. LeeSF+51.9pp
  2. 2B. EldridgeSF+44.2pp
  3. 3C. CrowMIL−39.4pp

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

4

R

4

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF25-38
12
9
MIL37-23
SF25-38·MIL37-23
SF

SF

25-38

12
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-551221003.2
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-661100016.4
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-4412100011.5
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-661210014.8
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
4-5534100051.9
SPRINT27.148
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
3-4423101044.2
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
3-5513200026.4
SPRINT28.175
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
1-441141123.3
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-551200012.4
JJ. CoxCF
0-110000000.1
Team20-4545122012225—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
4.153235115.5
S. HentgesS. HentgesRP
0.20001103.7
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.02222113.8
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.01110010.1
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.01000107.7
Team9.01198883—
MIL

MIL

37-23

9
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-5522000014.2
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio◆Multi-HR game★LF
3-4443421126.6
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-330200013.6
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-220010017.5
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-110000212.2
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-110000117.8
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-550110014.3
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-550110005.3
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-441111106.6
SPRINT29.294
G. SanchezG. SanchezDH
1-221100010.1
SPRINT24.12
J. OrtizJ. OrtizSS
0-111000101.4
A. VaughnA. Vaughn1B
0-330000014.4
Team11-36369119388—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. CrowC. Crow★SP
2.196622139.4
D. HallD. HallRP
2.11000100.7
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.13220107.9
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
3.074401110.1
Team9.0201212252—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • A. Houser
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.4 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      2%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    46 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      63%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Ramos
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      52%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·74.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Hentges
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kilian
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Beck
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·82.5 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • C. Crow
    70 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      34%·87.0 mph·45% whiff
    • CU
      26%·73.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      10%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    56 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      29%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·80.3 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      23%·89.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    30 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      60%·92.9 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.8 mph·— whiff
  • D. Hall
    27 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      41%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      15%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

20

Hits

11

12

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 1SFSF2@MILMIL16
Jun 2SFSF3@MILMIL8
Jun 3SFSF1@MILMIL0
Jun 4SFSF12@MILMIL9today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 1SFSF2@MILMIL16
Jun 2SFSF3@MILMIL8
Jun 3SFSF1@MILMIL0
Jun 4SFSF12@MILMIL9today
Jul 28MILMIL@SFSFupcoming
Jul 29MILMIL@SFSFupcoming
Jul 29MILMIL@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+15839%
MILMIL-19366%

↘6· 2.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 3 R · 1.600 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

J. Woodford

J. Woodford

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 7 H

How it ended

SF beat MIL 12-9.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 70% WP

Chapman · doubled to left, Lee scored, Eldridge to third.

SFTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+9pp→ 78% WP

Lee · doubled to right, Adames scored.

MILBottom 5th Inning · 6-3
+11pp→ 21% WP

Chourio · homered to right (353 feet), Yelich scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF30300060012
MIL1000202139

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

12

Runs

9

20

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

31

TB

22

2

HR

3

2

BB

8

5

K

8

18

LOB

15

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 9·SF +158/MIL -193

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SF won 3 · MIL won 3

3
1

Inn 1

Eldridge 1

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Lee 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Chourio 2

0
0

Inn 6

6
2

Inn 7

Haase 4

Chourio 2

0
1

Inn 8

Hamilton 1

0
3

Inn 9

Perkins 1

SF
MIL

Play-by-play · 719 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 12·MIL 9

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  3. B9

    Hamilton flied out to center.

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  6. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to David Hamilton

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  7. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  8. B9

    Rengifo singled to left, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

    +2pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 8

  11. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Luis Rengifo

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 9

  12. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 8

  13. B9

    Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to first, Sánchez scored, Perkins out at second, Ortiz to third.

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 8

    −2pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 8

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  18. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Sal Frelick

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 8

  19. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  20. B9

    Vaughn struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

    −4pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  26. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  27. B9

    Kilian relieved W. Ramos

    ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  28. B9

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

  29. B9

    Perkins walked, Chourio scored, Ortiz to second, Sánchez to third.

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

    +5pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SF 12·MIL 7

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.37

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-186

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 979 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jun 1, 26sim 97
    262
    8(H)16
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 91
    2810
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 3, 26sim 90
    261
    8(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 2, 26sim 90
    263
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 88
    21
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 88
    13
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.6low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.6± 5.5low
  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.2± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.1± 2.1high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.3± 2.7low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Logan WebbSF
    2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    65.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.9%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872