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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIA
MIA

MIA

21-25

10
5
TB

TB

29-15

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
19,673 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

57.1%

open 56.3% · +0.8

+0.5-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL61.1%51.1%TB NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 10 · TB 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
MIA000000101810
TB00100000135

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.7pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

TB

★ best
-134DraftKings

edge +13.7pp · implied 53.8%

BookMIATBBest edge
DraftKings+103-134★+13.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasTB -136

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 10–5.

MIA +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. MackMIA+61.5pp
  2. 2H. BiggeTB−55.1pp
  3. 3J. MarseeMIA+48.8pp

MIA · top performer

MIA
Heriberto Hernandez

Heriberto Hernandez

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Nick Fortes

Nick Fortes

C

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
MIA21-25
10
5
TB29-15
MIA21-25·TB29-15
MIA

MIA

21-25

10
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-4411001028.8
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-551220019.9
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-4402100010.3
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-551100032.4
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-551110015.9
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
3-4423001148.8
SPRINT27.765
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-5512400038.9
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-110000102.5
J. MackJ. Mack★C
1-5511000361.5
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
1-2211110119.8
SPRINT28.483
E. RuizE. RuizRF
1-1111100047.1
Team15-41411015101310—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.071006010.0
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.00000006.9
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.00000108.2
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.011012037.2
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.02322000.1
Team10.01052390—
TB

TB

29-15

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-4411101011.4
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-551220002.0
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-550110022.6
SPRINT25.29
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-550100005.6
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
2-5502000112.9
SPRINT26.838
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-3311002241.9
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
0-5500000312.4
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-220000013.1
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-4421000018.7
SPRINT27.765
N. FortesN. FortesC
1-2201100037.3
Team10-40405105039—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
6.05001404.5
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.011102118.2
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.01000109.3
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.021103035.4
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
1.068720055.1
Team10.0151093101—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    101 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      26%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.9 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      19%·90.7 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      15%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      33%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Bender
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      44%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.9 mph·50% whiff

TB

  • N. Martinez
    77 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      31%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      52%·87.8 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      45%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·87.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • CH
      56%·85.7 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      44%·97.5 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      38%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·90.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

10

10

Runs

5

4

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

May 15MIAMIA2@TBTB7
May 16MIAMIA10@TBTB5today
May 17MIAMIA3@TBTB6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15MIAMIA2@TBTB7
May 16MIAMIA10@TBTB5today
May 17MIAMIA3@TBTB6
Jun 5TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 6TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming
Jun 7TBTB@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+11347%
TBTB-13658%

↘5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 42pp · Top 9th Inning

MIAMIA
H. Hernandez

H. Hernandez

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 7 H

TBTB
N. Fortes

N. Fortes

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat TB 10-5. Sanoja's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 7th Inning · 1-1
+22pp→ 41% WP

Hern · ández homered to left center (439 feet).

MIATop 9th Inning · 2-1
+42pp→ 84% WP

Sanoja · doubled to center, Marsee scored.

TBBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+42pp→ 55% WP

Fortes · singled to left, Mullins scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
MIA000000101810
TB00100000135

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

10

Runs

5

15

Hits

10

4

Errors

1

23

TB

12

1

HR

0

3

BB

3

10

K

9

10

LOB

17

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·MIA +113/TB -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

TB vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · TB won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Simpson 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Sanoja 1

Fortes 1

8
3

Inn 10

Sanoja 3

Caminero 2

MIA
TB

Play-by-play · 649 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    MIA 10·TB 5

  2. B10

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  3. B10

    DeLuca flied out to center.

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  9. B10

    Lake Bachar pitches to Jonny DeLuca

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  10. B10

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  11. B10

    Mullins walked.

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  12. B10

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  13. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  14. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  15. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  16. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  19. B10

    Aranda to third on wild pitch by Bachar.

    ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  20. B10

    Aranda to third on wild pitch by Bachar.

    ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  21. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  22. B10

    Lake Bachar pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  23. B10

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  24. B10

    Palacios lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

    −0.5pp

  25. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  26. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  27. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  28. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  29. B10

    Lake Bachar pitches to Richie Palacios

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

  30. B10

    · ·

    MIA 10·TB 5

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

TB vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.2± 2.5low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    4.9± 2.0low

Hits

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 3.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.3± 1.9high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.8± 1.2high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.3%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    65.4%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.2%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 95
    13
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 93
    176
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 93
    146
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 92
    21
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 92
    204
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →