Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 4, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

CLE

36-28

NYY

37-25

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

39,504 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYY no-vig %

60.2%

open 58.3% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
60.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.7%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.5%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.07

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CLE

no live price

NYY

no live price

Book	CLE	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+143	-189	+0.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.5± 2.7medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.4± 0.8high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.2± 1.2high
Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.5± 1.7high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.2± 2.4high
Ben RiceNYY
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.1± 1.2high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.8± 1.0high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
3.0± 2.9medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.5± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

NYY

.682

OPS

.718

▶

.775

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.333

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

3.81

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.32

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

CLE 1 · NYY 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FryRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Ramirez3B	.245	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. Bazzana2B	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FairchildRF	.143	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
S. KwanCF	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HedgesC	.238	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. RocchioSS	.284	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	2	1	0	4	8

Player

.250

.245

.200

.273

.237

.143

.206

.238

.284

.238

.257

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	4	82
C. HeuerRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	27
M. FestaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	8.0	5	2	2	2	7	124

Player

S. CecconiSP

6.0

C. HeuerRP

1.0

M. FestaRP

1.0

Team

8.0

124

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.212	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.300	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
P. Goldschmidt1B	.276	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.238	1	1	0	1	0	1	1
J. CaballeroSS	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.205	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.177	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. SchuemannSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		26	2	5	2	0	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RodonSP	6.0	2	1	1	3	7	96
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
F. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	2	1	1	4	8	137

Team

CLE

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYY vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.