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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIN
MIL

MIL

26-18

4
5
MIN

MIN

21-26

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
25,375 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

47.4%

open 47.8% · -0.4

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL51.8%43.4%MIN NO-VIG %May 16, 11 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIL 4 · MIN 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0101100014
MIN102010015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+43.9pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best
+438DraftKings

edge +43.9pp · implied 17.5%

MIN

no live price

BookMILMINBest edge
DraftKings+438★-720+43.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 29, 26sim 97
    85
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    159
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    158
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 93
    159
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 93
    150
    28(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    83
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -129

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL26-18
4
5
MIN21-26
MIL26-18·MIN21-26
MIL

MIL

26-18

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-55010000
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44100011
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-55020000
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-55111101
SPRINT27.148
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44121010
SPRINT2744
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
2-55021000
SPRINT28.790
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-33111101
SPRINT29.798
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-11010030
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-11000001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn1B
0-11000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-22000001
Team10-36364104255
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. GasserR. Gasser★SP
4.0332230
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.2211021
D. HallD. HallRP
1.1000120
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.0111010
Team8.0654381
MIN

MIN

21-26

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-22100010
SPRINT27.867
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000001
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
2-33221110
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
2-44122000
SPRINT27.457
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-33120010
SPRINT28.688
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-11001000
SPRINT24.22
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000003
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
0-44000002
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-33000002
T. LarnachT. LarnachLF
0-11000000
Team6-2828564138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
5.0633212
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2100120
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
1.0000010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2100000
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2000100
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0211110
Team9.01044552

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • R. Gasser
    79 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      30%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·79.6 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      15%·92.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      24%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      37%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.8 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    77 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      42%·83.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      25%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·74.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      1%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • L. Garcia
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FS
      45%·88.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      45%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      44%·83.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      39%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morris
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·79.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Topa
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      36%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      36%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      63%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·78.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

May 15MILMIL3@MINMIN2
May 16MILMIL2@MINMIN1
May 17MILMIL4@MINMIN5today

Season series

MIL leads series 2-1

May 15MILMIL3@MINMIN2
May 16MILMIL2@MINMIN1
May 17MILMIL4@MINMIN5today
Aug 7MINMIN@MILMILupcoming
Aug 8MINMIN@MILMILupcoming
Aug 9MINMIN@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-12956%
MINMIN+10748%

↗2· 3.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MILMIL
J. Ortiz

J. Ortiz

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Gasser

R. Gasser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
R. Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat MIL 5-4. Keaschall's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIN vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+16pp→ 79% WP

Clemens · doubled to left, Jeffers scored on error and Clemens scored on throwing error by shortstop Ortiz.

MILTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+17pp→ 43% WP

Bauers · doubled to center.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 90% WP

Keaschall · tripled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0101100014
MIN10201001—5

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · MIN won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Clemens 1

1
0

Inn 2

Frelick 1

0
2

Inn 3

Clemens 2

1
0

Inn 4

Mitchell 1

1
1

Inn 5

Yelich 1

Jeffers 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Caratini 1

1

Inn 9

Bauers 1

MIL
MIN

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  2. T9

    Frelick fouled out to catcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

    +15pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  6. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Sal Frelick

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  7. T9

    Perkins ran for Bauers

    ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  8. T9

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  9. T9

    Bauers singled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

    −7pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  11. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Jake Bauers

    · ·

    MIL 4·MIN 5

  12. T9

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  13. T9

    Yelich struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

    +11pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  19. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Christian Yelich

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  20. T9

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  21. T9

    Contreras reached on infield single to second, Turang to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

    −8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  26. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to William Contreras

    · ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  27. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  28. T9

    Turang walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

    −7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 3·MIN 5

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

5

10

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

19

TB

13

2

HR

1

5

BB

3

5

K

8

23

LOB

9

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·MIL -129/MIN +107

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.66

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-129

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

53.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.2medium

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    39.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.9%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.