MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIA

MIA

28-34

WSH

31-31

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

19,751 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.9%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.0pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

-106DraftKings

edge +6.0pp · implied 49.1%

WSH

no live price

Book	MIA	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-106★	-114	+6.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.0high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.6± 2.3high
Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.8high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.1± 1.8high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.9high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.6low
Cade CavalliWSH
2.3± 1.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

WSH

.702

OPS

.717

▶

.745

.322

OBP

.319

.323

4.25

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.47

4.11

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.64

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 7 · WSH 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	3	7
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. HernandezLF	.216	5	2	2	3	2	0	2
O. LopezSS	.339	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
K. StowersLF	.222	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
X. Edwards2B	.309	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Jimenez3B	.214	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.269	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MarseeCF	.195	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.231	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. MackC	.214	3	1	1	3	1	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.260	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.178	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	8	7	4	5	6

Player

.216

.339

.222

.309

.214

.269

.195

.231

.214

.260

.178

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BacharRP	2.2	0	0	0	1	3	49
J. KingRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	26
R. GustoSP	2.0	5	3	3	0	3	40
M. PetersenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	11
A. BenderRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	6
C. FaucherRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	11	144

Player

2.2

1.2

2.0

1.0

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.263	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Mead1B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.293	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.254	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
D. CrewsRF	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Vivas3B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.181	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.236	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.193	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.269	2	1	0	1	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	3	7	2	0	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LoveladyRP	2.0	0	0	0	3	2	41
M. MikolasSP	6.0	6	6	6	2	4	92
M. ParkerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	15
Team	9.0	8	7	7	5	6	148

Team

MIA

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.