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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
LAD

LAD

29-19

0
1
SD

SD

29-18

Petco Park · San Diego, California
40,882 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

41.6%

open 41.7% · -0.2

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL45.7%36.7%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 38.8%May 17, 6 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

LAD 0 · SD 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
SD100000001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.2pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best
+262DraftKings

edge +35.2pp · implied 26.0%

SD

no live price

BookLADSDBest edge
DraftKings+262★-371+35.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 95
    194
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 91
    160
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 91
    195
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 91
    101
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 90
    100
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 90
    153
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -149

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

SD +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD29-19
0
1
SD29-18
LAD29-19·SD29-18
LAD

LAD

29-19

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-33020010
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44010000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-22000022
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000011
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-44000002
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000003
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-22010011
SPRINT28.381
Team5-29290500510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
7.0311281
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0100000
Team8.0411281
SD

SD

29-18

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44121100
SPRINT26.530
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33000002
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-22000012
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-33000000
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-33000001
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33000001
R. DuranR. Duran★C
0-22000010
Team4-2727141128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
7.0400290
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0100100
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000210
Team9.05005100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • M. Miller
    22 pitches·9% CSW
    • SL
      59%·87.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      41%·101.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

May 19LADLAD0@SDSD1today
May 20LADLAD5@SDSD4
May 21LADLAD4@SDSD0

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

May 19LADLAD0@SDSD1today
May 20LADLAD5@SDSD4
May 21LADLAD4@SDSD0
Jun 27LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jun 28LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jun 28LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jul 3SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 4SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 5SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 5SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 23SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 24SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 25SDSD@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-14960%
SDSD+12445%

↗1· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 9th Inning

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

SDSD
M. Andujar

M. Andujar

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat LAD 1-0.

Win probability

SD vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 58% WP

Andujar · homered to left center (376 feet).

SDTop 6th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 72% WP

T. Hern · ández grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Pages out at second.

SDTop 9th Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 74% WP

Smith · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
SD10000000—1

Period scoring

LAD won 0 · SD won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
SD

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  2. T9

    Pages grounded into fielder's choice to third, Call out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  7. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  8. T9

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  9. T9

    Muncy struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

    +13pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  13. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  14. T9

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  15. T9

    Smith flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

    +15pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  23. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  24. T9

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  25. T9

    Tucker walked, Call to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

    −13pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

  30. T9

    Mason Miller pitches to Kyle Tucker

    · ·

    LAD 0·SD 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SD

Home

0

Runs

1

5

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

5

TB

7

0

HR

1

5

BB

2

10

K

8

16

LOB

7

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7·LAD -149/SD +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.17

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    1.8± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    47.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.6%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.