Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 1, 2026

FINAL+1COL

COL

2-4

TOR

4-2

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

37,208 attended

Line movement

23 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

70.5%

open 70.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

77.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
75.4%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
79.1%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
75.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-280

Close price

-280

Open no-vig

70.5%

Close no-vig

70.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TOR vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.8low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium
Trey YesavageTOR
5.4± 1.8low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Willi CastroCOL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.7± 1.7medium

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

TOR

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.702

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

5.51

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.14

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.32

7.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 2 · TOR 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +25pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JohnstonRF	.333	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.292	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
W. Castro2B	.130	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
E. TovarSS	.296	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BeckLF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. SullivanC	.143	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. DoyleCF	.150	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
K. Karros3B	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Ritter2B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCarthyCF	.111	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		36	2	6	2	0	3	17

Player

.333

.292

.130

.296

.429

.125

.143

.150

.211

.143

.111

.111

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	5.0	5	1	1	1	6	88
A. SenzatelaRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	26
V. VodnikRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
J. HergetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Team	10.0	7	1	1	1	9	158

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.154	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
D. SchneiderLF	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.300	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.292	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. KirkC	.125	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.320	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.375	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.800	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.364	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HeinemanC	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	1	7	1	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	6.0	2	0	0	0	10	89
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	18
T. NanceRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	1	16
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	9
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
B. LittleRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	10
Team	10.0	6	2	1	3	17	158

Team

COL

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TOR vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.