• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1KC
BAL

BAL

11-13

5
6
KC

KC

8-16

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
15,164 attended

Line movement

32 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%KC NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

BAL 5 · KC 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0300000205
KC0100201116

Final play

“Garcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, Apr 21·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasKC -131

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Baltimore Orioles, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

BAL +1.5 cashed (KC won by 1). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Michael Massey

Michael Massey

2B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL11-13
5
6
KC8-16
BAL11-13·KC8-16
BAL

BAL

11-13

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000011
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-44122101
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.29
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT26.530
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-33110011
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-44000000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33113100
SPRINT2872
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22000011
C. CowserC. CowserCF
0-11000000
Team8-3232585254
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
6.1844240
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.2100000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0111021
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
0.1011210
Team8.11066471
KC

KC

8-16

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-33211021
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33011010
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44001001
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010000
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-33120010
SPRINT27.457
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
2-33122100
SPRINT26.838
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-44000003
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-44000002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
3-44230000
SPRINT26.941
Team10-32326105147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BubicK. Bubic★SP
6.0533331
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000000
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0322111
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000100
Team9.0855542

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Baz
    98 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.0 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      35%·85.5 mph·28% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.4 mph·20% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      55%·87.6 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      44%·85.6 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      22%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • K. Bubic
    100 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      35%·86.0 mph·19% whiff
    • FF
      31%·92.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      32%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·82.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      23%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      10%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      43%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      36%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 20BALBAL7@KCKC5
Apr 21BALBAL5@KCKC6today
Apr 22BALBAL8@KCKC6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 20BALBAL7@KCKC5
Apr 21BALBAL5@KCKC6today
Apr 22BALBAL8@KCKC6
Jul 10KCKC@BALBALupcoming
Jul 11KCKC@BALBALupcoming
Jul 12KCKC@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+10948%
KCKC-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 41pp · Top 8th Inning

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

KCKC
M. Massey

M. Massey

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

K. Bubic

K. Bubic

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

KC beat BAL 6-5. Rutschman's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).

Last play

Garcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.

Win probability

KC vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+26pp→ 75% WP

Mayo · homered to left (439 feet), Jackson scored and Wilson scored.

BALTop 8th Inning · 5-4
+41pp→ 74% WP

Rutschman · homered to left center (394 feet), Henderson scored.

KCBottom 8th Inning · 5-5
+35pp→ 60% WP

Massey · homered to right (412 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0300000205
KC0100201116

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · KC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

3
1

Inn 2

Mayo 3

Massey 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Jr. 1

2
1

Inn 8

Rutschman 2

Massey 1

0
1

Inn 9

Garcia 1

BAL
KC

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    Garcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 6

  2. B9

    Garcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 6

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  8. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 6

  9. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  10. B9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Helsley, Garcia to third on wild pitch by Helsley.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

    +18pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  17. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  18. B9

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  19. B9

    Witt Jr. walked, Garcia to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

    +8pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  25. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  26. B9

    ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  27. B9

    Garcia walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

    +9pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 5·KC 5

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

6

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

16

TB

19

2

HR

1

5

BB

4

4

K

7

14

LOB

16

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9·BAL +109/KC -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 96
    17
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 95
    146
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    18
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    266
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs