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FINAL+1MIN
MIN

MIN

26-27

6
5
BOS

BOS

22-30

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
31,050 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

BOS no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

+0.5-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%54.3%BOS NO-VIG %May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 6 · BOS 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1020030006
BOS0103000015

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best
-101DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 47.2%

BOS

no live price

BookMINBOSBest edge
DraftKings-101★-128+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 99
    129
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    129
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 96
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 3-0/VegasBOS -175

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Orlando Arcia

Orlando Arcia

SS

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN26-27
6
5
BOS22-30
MIN26-27·BOS22-30
MIN

MIN

26-27

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-55111002
SPRINT27.867
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-44122011
SPRINT26.428
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44221001
SPRINT26.632
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44010012
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
2-55021001
SPRINT27.457
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000012
O. ArciaO. Arcia★SS
3-55130000
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-22000022
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
1-44110001
Team12-373761250512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
5.0744032
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000000
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.0000020
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.1200000
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.1211120
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
0.1000000
Team9.01155172
BOS

BOS

22-30

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44010001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-55010000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-44122101
SPRINT26.838
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44221100
SPRINT26.123
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44110000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000012
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.560
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22000000
M. GasperM. GasperC
0-11000001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
1-11011000
Team11-36365115217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
4.0633240
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000110
T. GuerreroT. GuerreroRP
0.2222020
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
0.1211010
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
1.0000020
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0100110
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
1.0100110
Team9.012665120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • B. Ober
    82 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·87.6 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      30%·82.2 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      18%·81.4 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      11%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·87.3 mph·25% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      69%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Orze
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      20%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Adams
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      100%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • S. Gray
    75 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      33%·88.4 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      21%·79.4 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      45%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      5%·77.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Watson
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      30%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·82.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Guerrero
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      79%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      43%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      29%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Moran
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      36%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      36%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

11

6

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5today

Season series

MIN wins series 5-1

Apr 13BOSBOS6@MINMIN13
Apr 14BOSBOS0@MINMIN6
Apr 15BOSBOS9@MINMIN5
May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

MINMIN+14441%
BOSBOS-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 6th Inning

MINMIN
O. Arcia

O. Arcia

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H

BOSBOS
I. Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat BOS 6-5. Lee's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 4th Inning · 3-3
+18pp→ 62% WP

Contreras · homered to left (382 feet), Abreu scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 6-4
+28pp→ 75% WP

Lee · singled to left, Kreidler scored and Martin scored, Lee to second.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 6-4
+16pp→ 81% WP

Contreras · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1020030006
BOS0103000015

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · BOS won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Clemens 1

0
1

Inn 2

Yoshida 1

2
0

Inn 3

Larnach 1

0
3

Inn 4

Contreras 2

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Sox 1

MIN
BOS

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  3. B9

    Rafaela flied out to right.

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  5. B9

    Travis Adams pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  6. B9

    Adams relieved Gómez

    ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  7. B9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  8. B9

    Duran hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

    −15pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  10. B9

    Kiner-Falefa to third on a balk.

    ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  11. B9

    Kiner-Falefa to third on a balk.

    ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  12. B9

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  13. B9

    ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  14. B9

    Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Red Sox challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Trevo

    ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

    −4pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  16. B9

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 5

  17. B9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  18. B9

    Mayer struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

    −14pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  23. B9

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  24. B9

    Wong ran for Narváez

    ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  25. B9

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  26. B9

    Narváez walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

    +13pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 6·BOS 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

6

Runs

5

12

Hits

11

1

Errors

1

15

TB

23

0

HR

2

5

BB

1

12

K

7

24

LOB

15

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7·MIN +144/BOS -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.17

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872