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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CHC
CHC

CHC

31-26

7
2
PIT

PIT

29-28

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
19,121 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

+0.5-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL64.8%56.3%PIT NO-VIG %May 27, 4 PMMay 28, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 7 · PIT 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0001020317
PIT0000020002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+49.5pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

PIT

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +49.5pp · implied 0.0%

BookCHCPITBest edge
DraftKings-129—★+49.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 99
    281
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    288
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 96
    95
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    121
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, May 28·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -175

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 7–2.

CHC +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC31-26
7
2
PIT29-28
CHC31-26·PIT29-28
CHC

CHC

31-26

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44110012
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-55010000
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33200022
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-55211001
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
3-55132101
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-55122002
SPRINT27.457
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-22000001
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-33000012
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000012
K. AlcantaraK. AlcantaraRF
0-11000001
Team8-36367851614
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
5.1422351
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.2100010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000220
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
2.0100000
Team9.0622581
PIT

PIT

29-28

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000020
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-33000003
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-33121110
SPRINT27.969
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-33000011
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
1-44110001
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2993
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-11000000
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.483
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44000001
T. CallihanT. CallihanLF
1-22011010
Team6-3131262158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
5.14313100
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.2000020
B. BidoisB. BidoisRP
1.0332211
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0111110
Team9.08746141

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.0 mph·30% whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      26%·76.5 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.3 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      26%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Thornton
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      27%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      43%·86.9 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      24%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.9 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    103 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.4 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.6 mph·58% whiff
    • FS
      9%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bidois
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      52%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      48%·95.9 mph·13% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·86.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      35%·84.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

7

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2today

Season series

PIT leads series 4-3

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2today
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+14441%
PITPIT-17564%

↘4· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 8th Inning

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.1 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 7-2. Happ's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 81% WP

Happ · reached on infield single to shortstop, Busch scored on throwing error by shortstop Triolo, Bregman safe at third on error.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 37% WP

Callihan · doubled to center, Garcia scored.

CHCTop 8th Inning · 5-2
+20pp→ 92% WP

Happ · homered to right center (403 feet), Bregman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0001020317
PIT0000020002

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
2

Inn 6

Happ 1

Reynolds 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Happ 2

1
0

Inn 9

Cubs 1

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 632 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  3. B9

    Horwitz flied out to right.

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  7. B9

    Trent Thornton pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  8. B9

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  9. B9

    Davis grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Triolo out at second.

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

    −2pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  13. B9

    Trent Thornton pitches to Henry Davis

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  14. B9

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  15. B9

    Triolo singled to left.

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

    +1pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  21. B9

    Trent Thornton pitches to Jared Triolo

    ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  24. T9

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  25. T9

    Suzuki struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 7·PIT 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

7

Runs

2

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

11

TB

11

1

HR

1

6

BB

5

14

K

8

15

LOB

13

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHC +144/PIT -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.