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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4WSH
WSH

WSH

5-8

7
3
MIL

MIL

8-5

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
30,196 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIL no-vig %

64.5%

open 64.5%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL68.5%60.5%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 7 · MIL 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH2000001047
MIL3000000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 93
    41
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 92
    37
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 91
    47
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 90
    203
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 90
    34
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 89
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-207

Close price

-207

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -207

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 7–3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jacob Young

Jacob Young

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH5-8
7
3
MIL8-5
WSH5-8·MIL8-5
WSH

WSH

5-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
4-55141001
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-55111001
SPRINT26.838
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55010000
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000012
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-33121000
SPRINT28.483
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT28.891
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44111001
SPRINT26.735
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0-33101000
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-22000000
J. YoungJ. YoungCF
1-11011000
Team11-34347117026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.0233551
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
1.0100010
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0100000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0000000
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000010
Team9.0433571
MIL

MIL

8-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44010001
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-22100011
SPRINT29.798
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-33123110
SPRINT2744
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-33000012
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33000000
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-33000011
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000000
B. LockridgeB. LockridgeLF
0-11000000
Team4-3030343157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AshbyA. Ashby★RP
2.1322040
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
3.0300100
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.2111100
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100020
E. McGeeE. McGeeSP
1.0100000
Team9.01177260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    100 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.6 mph·12% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      65%·89.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Perez
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SV
      43%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      75%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      40%·90.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      20%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·78.9 mph·50% whiff

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    50 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      38%·89.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      20%·84.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    44 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      61%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      5%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      68%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      57%·97.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Megill
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      44%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
  • E. McGee
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • CU
      57%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

7

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 3-0

Apr 10WSHWSH7@MILMIL3today
Apr 11WSHWSH3@MILMIL1
Apr 12WSHWSH8@MILMIL6

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Apr 10WSHWSH7@MILMIL3today
Apr 11WSHWSH3@MILMIL1
Apr 12WSHWSH8@MILMIL6
May 1MILMIL6@WSHWSH1
May 2MILMIL4@WSHWSH1
May 3MILMIL2@WSHWSH3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+16937%
MILMIL-20767%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 9th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Young

J. Young

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 5 BB

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Ashby

A. Ashby

RP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

WSH beat MIL 7-3. Garc's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 2-3
+22pp→ 83% WP

Bauers · homered to right (428 feet), Turang scored and Mitchell scored.

MILTop 6th Inning · 2-3
+19pp→ 84% WP

Abrams · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, House out at second.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+29pp→ 90% WP

Garc · ía Jr. singled to center, Abrams scored, Wiemer to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH2000001047
MIL3000000003

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · MIL won 1

2
3

Inn 1

Mead 1

Bauers 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Young 1

0
0

Inn 8

4
0

Inn 9

Garc 1

WSH
MIL

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  3. B9

    Hamilton grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  6. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to David Hamilton

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  7. B9

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  8. B9

    Perkins struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  12. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  13. B9

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  14. B9

    Frelick grounded out to third.

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

    −1pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  22. B9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  23. B9

    Beeter relieved Poulin

    ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  24. B9

    Nuñez as designated hitter.

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  27. T9

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  28. T9

    Lile grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mead out at second.

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

  30. T9

    Easton McGee pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIL 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

7

Runs

3

11

Hits

4

1

Errors

1

15

TB

7

0

HR

1

2

BB

5

6

K

7

17

LOB

14

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +169/MIL -207

DraftKings · via ESPN

Win probability

MIL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Player projections

MIL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    67.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    71.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    67.3%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891