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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4PIT
PIT

PIT

26-24

6
2
STL

STL

28-21

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
27,705 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

STL no-vig %

45.9%

open 46.8% · -0.9

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL51.4%41.9%STL NO-VIG %May 20, 5 PMMay 21, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 6 · STL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1001022006
STL0010000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.3pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

STL

★ best
+156DraftKings

edge +21.3pp · implied 36.7%

BookPITSTLBest edge
DraftKings-206+156★+21.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 98
    263
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 97
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 96
    92
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    115
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    237
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    186
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, May 21·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -120

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 6–2.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT26-24
6
2
STL28-21
PIT26-24·STL28-21
PIT

PIT

26-24

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-55110003
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44121110
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-55001003
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33110010
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-44210000
SPRINT29.899
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-44022000
SPRINT25.614
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44011001
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-44010001
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-33111101
SPRINT27.765
Team10-36366106229
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
7.0411291
W. DotelW. DotelRP
1.0311020
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0100000
Team9.08222111
STL

STL

28-21

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-44000002
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
2-44221102
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000003
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-22000021
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000000
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000000
Team8-34342821211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
5.1644271
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
0.2000000
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.2322001
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.1100010
M. PushardM. PushardRP
1.0000010
Team9.01066292

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    98 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      34%·92.4 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      30%·97.4 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      22%·85.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.8 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      3%·92.2 mph·— whiff
  • W. Dotel
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      53%·99.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      37%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      38%·91.8 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • D. May
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      30%·92.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      37%·96.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      37%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      56%·79.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      38%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Pushard
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • CU
      43%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      43%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

May 19PITPIT6@STLSTL9
May 20PITPIT7@STLSTL0
May 21PITPIT6@STLSTL2today

Season series

STL leads series 5-2

Apr 27STLSTL4@PITPIT2
Apr 28STLSTL11@PITPIT7
Apr 29STLSTL5@PITPIT4
Apr 30STLSTL10@PITPIT5
May 19PITPIT6@STLSTL9
May 20PITPIT7@STLSTL0
May 21PITPIT6@STLSTL2today
Aug 29PITPIT@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 29PITPIT@STLSTLupcoming
Aug 30PITPIT@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 22STLSTL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 23STLSTL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 24STLSTL@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

PITPIT-12055%
STLSTL-10150%

↗4· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat STL 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 66% WP

Lowe · homered to left (342 feet).

STLBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 46% WP

Herrera · homered to left center (408 feet).

PITTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+12pp→ 87% WP

Ozuna · singled to left, Horwitz scored and Griffin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1001022006
STL0010000102

Period scoring

PIT won 4 · STL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Herrera 1

1
0

Inn 4

Mangum 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Ozuna 2

2
0

Inn 7

Davis 1

0
1

Inn 8

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
STL

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·STL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  3. B9

    Pozo grounded into double play, third to second to first, Pagés out at second.

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  5. B9

    Mason Montgomery pitches to Yohel Pozo

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  6. B9

    Pozo hit for Scott II

    PIT 6·STL 2

  7. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  8. B9

    Pagés singled to center.

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

    +1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  14. B9

    Mason Montgomery pitches to Pedro Pages

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  15. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  16. B9

    Fermín grounded out to first.

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

    −0.9pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  19. B9

    Mason Montgomery pitches to Jose Fermin

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  20. B9

    Montgomery relieved Dotel

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·STL 2

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·STL 2

  23. T9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  24. T9

    Reynolds struck out looking.

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  28. T9

    Matt Pushard pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  29. T9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

  30. T9

    Lowe grounded out to second.

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

STL

Home

6

Runs

2

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

18

TB

12

2

HR

1

2

BB

2

9

K

11

12

LOB

11

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7·PIT -120/STL -101

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.91

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.