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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TOR
PIT

PIT

26-25

2
6
TOR

TOR

24-27

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
39,839 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

+0.5-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL63.8%55.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 21, 8 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

PIT 2 · TOR 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1000000102
TOR003000036

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.1pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

TOR

★ best
-102DraftKings

edge +2.1pp · implied 47.4%

BookPITTORBest edge
DraftKings-128-102★+2.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.53

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+138

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -168

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 6–2.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT26-25
2
6
TOR24-27
PIT26-25·TOR24-27
PIT

PIT

26-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000002
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-33220010
SPRINT27.148
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-22001001
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-44000003
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
1-44010001
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★C
2-44020001
E. ValdezE. Valdez★OF
0-33000012
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-33000000
B. ReynoldsB. ReynoldsLF
0-11001000
SPRINT27.969
Team7-32322720211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
5.02303110
B. BidoisB. BidoisRP
1.0000110
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000210
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0333120
Team8.05637150
TOR

TOR

24-27

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-33112012
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44110010
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33100022
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000004
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
1-44012001
SPRINT2622
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT27.354
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT25.818
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
0-22100021
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000003
Team5-31316550715
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
6.2611180
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1111100
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
2.0000030
Team9.07222110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      43%·99.3 mph·32% whiff
    • CH
      18%·92.7 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      18%·99.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      3%·90.4 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Santana
    31 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      58%·94.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      16%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bidois
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      5%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      55%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·83.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.5 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    94 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.3 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      38%·83.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      19%·83.9 mph·75% whiff
  • L. Varland
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      48%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      29%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      23%·92.5 mph·14% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      38%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

2

Runs

6

3

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 22PITPIT2@TORTOR6today
May 23PITPIT2@TORTOR5
May 24PITPIT4@TORTOR1

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

May 22PITPIT2@TORTOR6today
May 23PITPIT2@TORTOR5
May 24PITPIT4@TORTOR1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

↗1.5pt· 5.1h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+13942%
TORTOR-16863%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 8th Inning

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher11-K game

5.0 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat PIT 6-2.

Win probability

TOR vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+13pp→ 80% WP

Pinango · doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Varsho scored.

PITTop 7th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 35% WP

Rodr · íguez singled to center, Garcia to third.

TORTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+16pp→ 79% WP

Griffin · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1000000102
TOR00300003—6

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · TOR won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Pinango 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
3

Inn 8

Reynolds 1

Springer 2

0

Inn 9

PIT
TOR

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  2. T9

    Mangum grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  10. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Jake Mangum

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  11. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  12. T9

    Valdez struck out looking.

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  18. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Esmerlyn Valdez

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  19. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  20. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

    +0.6pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  26. T9

    Louis Varland pitches to Endy Rodriguez

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  27. T9

    Straw in right field.

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 2·TOR 6

  30. B8

    · ·

    PIT 2·TOR 6

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

5

3

Errors

0

8

TB

9

0

HR

0

2

BB

7

11

K

15

16

LOB

24

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8·PIT +139/TOR -168

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 99
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 97
    262
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 97
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 96
    266
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    281
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.7%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.6%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.