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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8ATL
ATL

ATL

38-19

10
2
BOS

BOS

23-32

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
30,901 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

BOS no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0-0.5BOS SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL48.9%39.7%BOS NO-VIG %May 27, 4 PMMay 28, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 10 · BOS 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL00020510210
BOS0002000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best
-114DraftKings

edge +11.4pp · implied 50.1%

BOS

no live price

BookATLBOSBest edge
DraftKings-114★-113+11.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 29, 26sim 97
    108
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    302
    1(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 96
    198
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    150
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 96
    106
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, May 28·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -142

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL38-19
10
2
BOS23-32
ATL38-19·BOS23-32
ATL

ATL

38-19

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-33114121
SPRINT26.838
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-55000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-55220001
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-55232101
SPRINT27.354
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-55000004
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-55221100
SPRINT27.148
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
2-44121011
SPRINT3099
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-33111010
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-22000002
C. TrompC. TrompC
0-11000000
Team11-38381011103510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
5.0622380
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0100010
R. LopezR. LopezRP
2.0100000
D. DoddD. DoddRP
1.0000020
Team9.08223110
BOS

BOS

23-32

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-55011002
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-55010002
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-22010010
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-44000003
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
0-33000001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
2-22120020
SPRINT27.560
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000002
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-44121000
SPRINT28.175
M. MayerM. Mayer2B
0-11000000
Team8-33332820311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. TolleP. Tolle★SP
4.2522270
T. GuerreroT. GuerreroRP
0.1100000
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0122101
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
2.0111021
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
1.0222011
Team9.01110105103

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • C. Sale
    96 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      41%·80.6 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      39%·97.0 mph·26% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.9 mph·40% whiff
  • R. Lopez
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      74%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      83%·93.8 mph·30% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      57%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      21%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.6 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • P. Tolle
    94 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.5 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.4 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      2%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Moran
    31 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      48%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      39%·93.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Watson
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      35%·84.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      70%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      30%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Guerrero
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      63%·99.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      38%·90.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

10

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2today

Season series

ATL wins series 4-2

May 15BOSBOS2@ATLATL3
May 16BOSBOS3@ATLATL2
May 17BOSBOS1@ATLATL8
May 26ATLATL7@BOSBOS6
May 27ATLATL0@BOSBOS8
May 28ATLATL10@BOSBOS2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-14259%
BOSBOS+11846%

↗6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

BOSBOS
I. Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

P. Tolle

P. Tolle

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat BOS 10-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 73% WP

Mateo · reached on infield single to second, Olson scored, Albies to third.

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 35% WP

Durbin · doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Durbin to third.

ATLTop 6th Inning · 7-2
+10pp→ 96% WP

Acu · ña Jr. homered to left center (417 feet), Mateo scored, Smith scored and Yastrzemski scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL00020510210
BOS0002000002

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · BOS won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
2

Inn 4

Mateo 1

Durbin 1

0
0

Inn 5

5
0

Inn 6

Acu 4

1
0

Inn 7

II 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Albies 2

ATL
BOS

Play-by-play · 626 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Rafaela struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  11. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  12. B9

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  13. B9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  19. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  20. B9

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  21. B9

    Durbin popped out to first.

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  28. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  29. B9

    Dodd relieved López

    ·

    ATL 10·BOS 2

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 10·BOS 2

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

10

Runs

2

11

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

23

TB

11

3

HR

0

5

BB

3

10

K

11

14

LOB

18

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 6.5·ATL -142/BOS +118

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

BOS vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    38.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.8%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872