• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1NYM
NYY

NYY

28-19

6
7
NYM

NYM

20-26

Citi Field · Queens, New York
40,232 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

49.5%

open 48.9% · +0.5

+2.0+1.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL53.5%44.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYY 6 · NYM 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
NYY00100410006
NYM00010200317

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.8pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best
-103DraftKings

edge +13.8pp · implied 47.6%

NYM

no live price

BookNYYNYMBest edge
DraftKings-103★-127+13.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.42

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -126

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off New York Yankees, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

NYM +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
A.J. Ewing

A.J. Ewing

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
NYY28-19
6
7
NYM20-26
NYY28-19·NYM20-26
NYY

NYY

28-19

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000001
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000011
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-22210030
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-33120021
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-44000000
S. JonesS. Jones★RF
0-22000002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
2-33123021
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
0-22000000
M. SchuemannM. SchuemannSS
0-11100011
A. WellsA. WellsC
0-22000000
Team6-3333665198
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
4.1511110
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
1.0222100
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2100010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000000
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0000100
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0333111
T. HillT. HillRP
0.1010000
Team9.11176431
NYM

NYM

20-26

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-55111001
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55010000
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-55110001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-55120001
SPRINT25.513
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-22000000
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44010010
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-55221000
SPRINT28.175
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
1-11110030
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-22000000
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
1-33113100
SPRINT28.891
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
1-22012000
SPRINT26.428
Team11-39397117143
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.0233641
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
4.0432230
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000110
Team10.0665981

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • E. Rodriguez
    64 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.4 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      2%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FS
      43%·90.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      22%·78.5 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      33%·71.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      24%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bird
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      73%·98.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      20%·98.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      62%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      23%·80.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      90%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·89.4 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    96 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      59%·94.8 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      3%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    57 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      47%·91.6 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      26%·74.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      79%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.5 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

6

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

May 15NYYNYY5@NYMNYM2
May 16NYYNYY3@NYMNYM6
May 17NYYNYY6@NYMNYM7today

Season series

NYM lead series 2-1

May 15NYYNYY5@NYMNYM2
May 16NYYNYY3@NYMNYM6
May 17NYYNYY6@NYMNYM7today
Sep 11NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 12NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 13NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY+10549%
NYMNYM-12656%

↘5· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 48pp · Bottom 9th Inning

NYYNYY
J. Chisholm Jr.

J. Chisholm Jr.

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.467 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
A.J. Ewing

A.J. Ewing

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 6 BB

How it ended

NYM beat NYY 7-6. Taylor's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (48pp).

Win probability

NYM vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 6th Inning · 3-1
+22pp→ 83% WP

Volpe · singled to left, Bellinger scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Schuemann to third.

NYMBottom 9th Inning · 6-6
+48pp→ 53% WP

Taylor · homered to left (404 feet), Benge scored and Soto scored.

NYMBottom 10th Inning · 6-6
+32pp→ 80% WP

Ewing · hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Semien to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
NYY00100410006
NYM00010200317

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · NYM won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Rice 1

0
1

Inn 4

Semien 1

0
0

Inn 5

4
2

Inn 6

Volpe 3

Torrens 2

1
0

Inn 7

Volpe 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

Taylor 3

0
1

Inn 10

Benge 1

NYY
NYM

Play-by-play · 668 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 7

  2. B10

    Benge grounded into fielder's choice to left, Semien scored, Torrens to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 7

    +18pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 7

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  5. B10

    Tim Hill pitches to Carson Benge

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 7

  6. B10

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  7. B10

    Torrens hit by pitch.

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

    +2pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  9. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  13. B10

    Tim Hill pitches to Luis Torrens

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  14. B10

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  15. B10

    Ewing hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Semien to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

    +32pp

  16. B10

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  17. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  19. B10

    Tim Hill pitches to A.J. Ewing

    ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  20. B10

    Hill relieved Bednar

    ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  21. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  22. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  23. T10

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  24. T10

    Wells grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Volpe out at second.

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  25. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  26. T10

    Devin Williams pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  27. T10

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  28. T10

    Volpe walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

    −13pp

  29. T10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

  30. T10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 6·NYM 6

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

6

Runs

7

6

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

10

TB

16

1

HR

1

9

BB

4

8

K

3

15

LOB

21

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 9·NYY +105/NYM -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    39.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.8%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 98
    302
    1(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 97
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 96
    1912
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 96
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    104
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    307
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs