MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MON, 8:10 PM EDTModelLAD60%

LAD

21-13

HOU

14-21

Place your bet

-199Bet LAD ML↗-199Bet LAD ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.07

Y. Yamamoto

2-2 · 2.87 ERA

S. Okert

0-0 · 4.20 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

SP · #18

2-2

W-L

2.87

ERA

1.01

WHIP

37.2

Last 3 starts

vsMIA-5.0 IP3 ER4 K

@SFL(2-2)7.0 IP3 ER7 K

vsNYM-7.2 IP1 ER7 K

Home starter

Steven Okert

RP · #48

0-0

W-L

4.20

ERA

1.20

WHIP

15.0

Last 3 starts

@BOS-1.0 IP0 ER1 K

@BAL-0.2 IP3 ER0 K

@BAL-0.1 IP0 ER0 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9

Money-207 / +169

Model edge

Win prob60% / 40%

LeanAway · 10pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

No prior meetings logged this season yet.

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-207Bet LAD ML↗-207Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9Bet the total↗O/U 9Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

LAD

1.S. OhtaniDH
2.F. Freeman1B
3.W. SmithC
4.T. HernandezLF
5.K. TuckerRF
6.M. Muncy3B
7.A. PagesCF
8.H. KimSS
9.A. Freeland2B

HOU

1.C. CorreaSS
2.Y. AlvarezDH
3.I. Paredes3B
4.C. Walker1B
5.J. Altuve2B
6.B. MatthewsCF
7.C. SmithRF
8.Z. ColeLF
9.C. VazquezC

Line movement

62 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU implied %

38.0%

open 38.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLean

DraftKings · snapped 14m ago

+3.9ppon

HOU

LADWin prob axisHOU HOU

Market 36%

Model 40%

0%50%100%

ModelHOU 40%Pre-game prob

MarketHOU 36%No-vig · 4.6% hold

Edge+3.9ppModel finds value

LAD -199/

HOU +163

+163Bet HOU ML↗+163Bet HOU ML↗

The One modelEdge

Mon, May 4

LAD★

Dodgers

21-13

vs60%LAD

HOU

Astros

14-21

LAD 60%win prob40% HOU

LAD 1569 · HOU 1476Box score→

MLBMon, May 45/4 - 8:10 PM EDTVegasLAD -207

Preview · MLB

os Angeles Dodgers visit Houston Astros Monday at 5/4 - 8:10 PM EDT.

Vegas opened LAD as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 9.0. HOU's moneyline implies a 37% break-even, LAD the inverse.

For bettors: the LAD side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 9.0 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

LAD · HOU

LAD

21-13

S. Ohtani★

OPS

0.639

H-AB

30-122

RBI

F. Freeman★

OPS

0.612

H-AB

35-129

RBI

W. Smith★

OPS

0.621

H-AB

25-95

RBI

T. Hernández★

OPS

0.611

H-AB

27-108

RBI

K. Tucker★

OPS

0.543

H-AB

30-127

RBI

M. Muncy★

OPS

0.845

H-AB

33-110

RBI

A. Pages★

OPS

0.756

H-AB

39-123

RBI

H. Kim★

OPS

0.683

H-AB

19-60

RBI

A. Freeland★

OPS

0.500

H-AB

19-82

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
S. Ohtani★DH	30-122	13	6	0.639
F. Freeman★1B	35-129	16	3	0.612
W. Smith★C	25-95	15	3	0.621
T. Hernández★LF	27-108	17	4	0.611
K. Tucker★RF	30-127	16	3	0.543
M. Muncy★3B	33-110	13	9	0.845
A. Pages★CF	39-123	27	5	0.756
H. Kim★SS	19-60	8	1	0.683
A. Freeland★2B	19-82	6	1	0.500
Team	-----	--	--	—

Y. Yamamoto★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
Y. Yamamoto★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

HOU

14-21

C. Correa★

OPS

0.653

H-AB

34-118

RBI

Y. Alvarez★

OPS

0.924

H-AB

43-132

RBI

I. Paredes★

OPS

0.609

H-AB

29-110

RBI

C. Walker★

OPS

0.825

H-AB

40-126

RBI

J. Altuve★

OPS

0.568

H-AB

31-125

RBI

B. Matthews★

OPS

0.574

H-AB

15-68

RBI

C. Smith★

OPS

0.559

H-AB

27-118

RBI

Z. Cole★

OPS

—

H-AB

-----

RBI

C. Vazquez★

OPS

0.778

H-AB

18-54

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
C. Correa★SS	34-118	16	3	0.653
Y. Alvarez★LF	43-132	27	12	0.924
I. Paredes★3B	29-110	15	3	0.609
C. Walker★1B	40-126	26	8	0.825
J. Altuve★2B	31-125	8	3	0.568
B. Matthews★LF	15-68	12	3	0.574
C. Smith★RF	27-118	17	4	0.559
Z. Cole★CF	-----	--	--	—
C. Vazquez★C	18-54	11	2	0.778
Team	-----	--	--	—

S. Okert★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
S. Okert★RP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Season series

May 5

LAD@

HOUtoday

May 6

LAD@

HOUupcoming

May 6

LAD@

HOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAD-20767%

HOU+16937%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 62 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

LADSP

Y. Yamamoto

#18 · 2-2

ERA

2.87

—

Last 3 starts

4/28vs

MIA5.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 K-

4/22@

SF7.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 KL(2-2)

4/15vs

NYM7.2 IP · 1 ER · 7 K-

HOURP

S. Okert

#48 · 0-0

ERA

4.20

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

BOS1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-

4/30@

BAL0.2 IP · 3 ER · 0 K-

4/28@

BAL0.1 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

LAD5L · 3R · 1S

1
S. Ohtani
DH
L
2
F. Freeman
1B
L
3
W. Smith
C
R
4
T. Hernandez
LF
R
5
K. Tucker
RF
L
6
M. Muncy
3B
L
7
A. Pages
CF
R
8
H. Kim
SS
L
9
A. Freeland
2B
B

HOU2L · 7R

1
C. Correa
SS
R
2
Y. Alvarez
DH
L
3
I. Paredes
3B
R
4
C. Walker
1B
R
5
J. Altuve
2B
R
6
B. Matthews
CF
R
7
C. Smith
RF
R
8
Z. Cole
LF
L
9
C. Vazquez
C
R

Scouting report

LAD @ HOU

5/4 - 8:10 PM EDT

Rest going in

LADStandard

1 day

last game May 3

HOUStandard

1 day

last game May 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

LAD -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

9.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LAD -207

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LADmetricHOU

21-13

Record

14-21

Conf rank

#13

+1.8

Pt diff

-0.6

Streak

5-5

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

LAD

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

W. Klein1.2 IP25 P
B. Treinen0.1 IP1 P
T. Scott1.0 IP13 P

W 4-1 · May 3

HOU

7.7 bullpen IP · heavy

A. Blubaugh3.2 IP59 P
S. Okert1.0 IP12 P
E. De Los Santos1.0 IP20 P
B. Abreu2.0 IP22 P

W 3-1 · May 3

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

311

Hits

325

Errors

175

Runs

178

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·LAD -207/HOU +169

DraftKings · via ESPN