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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8CHW
CHW

CHW

60-102

8
0
WSH

WSH

66-96

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
22,473 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 8 · WSH 0 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW2003200108
WSH0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

WSH vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    45
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 91
    44
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 90
    410
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 89
    90
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 88
    46
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 87
    47
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Brooks Baldwin

Brooks Baldwin

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Brady House

Brady House

3B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW60-102
8
0
WSH66-96
CHW60-102·WSH66-96
CHW

CHW

60-102

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
0-55000000
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-55110003
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44210011
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44112112
SPRINT28.381
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
2-44123101
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-44220000
SPRINT26.941
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
2-44122100
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
1-33011010
Team10-37378108338
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
6.0100080
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0000010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0000020
J. CannonJ. CannonSP
1.0000020
Team9.01000130
WSH

WSH

66-96

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33000003
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33000000
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-22000000
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-33000000
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-33000002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000000
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000003
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-22000001
N. NunezN. Nunez2B
0-11000001
SPRINT29.899
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000001
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell IIICF
0-11000001
Team1-28280100013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
4.0555243
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
0.1322110
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0100000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2000020
S. LaoS. LaoRP
1.0000010
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
2.0111000
Team9.01088383

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    73 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.6 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      19%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      1%·90.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      29%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      12%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Cannon
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.8 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    80 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.8 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.9 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      47%·81.9 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      24%·72.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • SL
      44%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Parker
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·80.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      19%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      40%·78.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Lao
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

1

8

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Sep 26CHWCHW10@WSHWSH9
Sep 27CHWCHW5@WSHWSH6
Sep 28CHWCHW8@WSHWSH0today

Season series

CHW win series 2-1

Sep 26CHWCHW10@WSHWSH9
Sep 27CHWCHW5@WSHWSH6
Sep 28CHWCHW8@WSHWSH0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 1st Inning

CHWCHW
B. Baldwin

B. Baldwin

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H

WSHWSH
B. House

B. House

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat WSH 8-0. Vargas's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 63% WP

Vargas · homered to left center (404 feet), Montgomery scored.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 5-0
+12pp→ 91% WP

Fletcher · homered to right (380 feet), Sosa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW2003200108
WSH0000000000

Period scoring

CHW won 4 · WSH won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Vargas 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Fletcher 2

2
0

Inn 5

Baldwin 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Taylor 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
WSH

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  3. B9

    Nuñez struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  8. B9

    Jonathan Cannon pitches to Nasim Nunez

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  9. B9

    Nuñez hit for Wood

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  10. B9

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  11. B9

    Hassell III struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  17. B9

    Jonathan Cannon pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  18. B9

    Hill in center field.

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  19. B9

    Hassell III hit for Young

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  20. B9

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  21. B9

    House flied out to left.

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  25. B9

    Jonathan Cannon pitches to Brady House

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  26. B9

    Cannon relieved Leasure

    ·

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  27. B9

    Sosa at second base.

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  28. B9

    Mead at first base.

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  29. B9

    Meidroth at shortstop.

    CHW 8·WSH 0

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 8·WSH 0

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

8

Runs

0

10

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

22

TB

1

3

HR

0

3

BB

0

8

K

13

13

LOB

2

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381