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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATH
ATH

ATH

26-24

3
2
LAA

LAA

17-34

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
25,848 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAA no-vig %

50.1%

open 51.1% · -1.0

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%46.1%LAA NO-VIG %May 20, 5 PMMay 21, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 3 · LAA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATH00000110013
LAA20000000002

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.2pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

ATH

★ best
+101DraftKings

edge +13.2pp · implied 47.5%

LAA

no live price

BookATHLAABest edge
DraftKings+101★-122+13.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 21·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-1/VegasLAA -122

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (ATH won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final/10
ATH26-24
3
2
LAA17-34
ATH26-24·LAA17-34
ATH

ATH

26-24

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-44010011
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44110012
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33111021
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44010010
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-55101002
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000000
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT27.969
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-44000001
Team7-3737373069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. SeverinoL. Severino★SP
7.03220101
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000010
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
1.0100100
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0100010
Team10.05221121
LAA

LAA

17-34

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000002
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-44112100
SPRINT25.920
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-44000000
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44010003
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
0-33000002
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-22000002
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.225
J. SolerJ. SolerDH
0-11000000
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada3B
0-11000000
Team5-33332521112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
6.2622170
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.1000000
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0100210
SPRINT27.148
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0000110
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0010200
Team10.0732690

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 3-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2today

Season series

ATH leads series 3-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2today
Jun 19LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 20LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 27ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 23LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 24LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+10150%
LAALAA-12255%

↗5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 10th Inning

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

7.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 3 H

LAALAA
N. Schanuel

N. Schanuel

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat LAA 3-2. Soler's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

LAA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+21pp→ 72% WP

Frazier · singled to right.

ATHBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 54% WP

Grissom · grounded out to shortstop.

ATHBottom 10th Inning · 3-2
+44pp→ 100% WP

Soler · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Adell out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATH00000110013
LAA20000000002

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · LAA won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Schanuel 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Kurtz 1

1
0

Inn 7

Hernaiz 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
0

Inn 10

Gelof 1

ATH
LAA

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  2. B10

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  3. B10

    Soler grounded into double play, third to second to first, Adell out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

    −44pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  6. B10

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Jorge Soler

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  7. B10

    Soler hit for Siri

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  8. B10

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  9. B10

    Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

    −17pp

  10. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  11. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  12. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  13. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  14. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  15. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  17. B10

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  18. B10

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  19. B10

    Adell singled to center, Grissom to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

    +27pp

  20. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  21. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  22. B10

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  23. B10

    Leiter Jr. relieved Kuhnel

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  24. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  25. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  26. T10

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  27. T10

    Hernaiz grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  28. T10

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  29. T10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

  30. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

8

TB

8

0

HR

1

6

BB

1

9

K

12

22

LOB

10

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATH +101/LAA -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.97

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-109

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

49.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Carlos CortesATH
    1.0± 0.7high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.1%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 97
    131
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 95
    111
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    24
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    116
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 90
    131
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs