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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAA
TEX

TEX

24-27

2
5
LAA

LAA

19-34

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
31,860 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAA no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL48.9%40.9%LAA NO-VIG %May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TEX 2 · LAA 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0100001002
LAA200010025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.9pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
+167DraftKings

edge +25.9pp · implied 35.2%

LAA

no live price

BookTEXLAABest edge
DraftKings+167★-223+25.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesLAA win series 3-0/VegasTEX -137

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Texas Rangers, 5–2.

LAA +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Alejandro Osuna

Alejandro Osuna

LF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX24-27
2
5
LAA19-34
TEX24-27·LAA19-34
TEX

TEX

24-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33010000
SPRINT25.716
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-55010001
SPRINT28.278
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-22000001
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
3-33130000
SPRINT2872
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-33000012
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000010
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-33011001
SPRINT28.891
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
0-33000012
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-33111112
SPRINT23.91
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-22000001
M. HelmanM. HelmanCF
1-22010010
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-22000001
Team8-34342821511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
7.0533261
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.1222000
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.2100100
Team8.0855361
LAA

LAA

19-34

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-33220010
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44112100
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-33011000
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT2622
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-33110001
W. MecklerW. Meckler★OF
1-33010001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-33012011
SPRINT28.278
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-44000001
D. WaltonD. Walton★2B
0-44000002
V. GrissomV. Grissom2B
0-11000000
Team8-3232585136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. UrenaW. Urena★SP
5.0511360
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0111011
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
0.2100010
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.1000010
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0100210
SPRINT27.148
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0000010
Team9.08225111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 3-0

May 23TEXTEX6@LAALAA9
May 24TEXTEX2@LAALAA5today
May 24TEXTEX1@LAALAA2

Season series

LAA lead series 2-0

May 23TEXTEX6@LAALAA9
May 24TEXTEX2@LAALAA5today
May 24TEXTEX1@LAALAA2
Jul 8LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 9LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 10LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 11TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 12TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 13TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 14TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 22LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 22LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 23LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-13758%
LAALAA+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TEXTEX
A. Osuna

A. Osuna

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

W. Urena

W. Urena

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAA beat TEX 5-2. Trout's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

LAA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 64% WP

Trout · homered to center (411 feet), Neto scored.

TEXTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+15pp→ 35% WP

Higashioka · homered to center (395 feet).

LAABottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+17pp→ 82% WP

Grissom · lined out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0100001002
LAA20001002—5

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · LAA won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Trout 2

1
0

Inn 2

Duran 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Schanuel 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Higashioka 1

0
2

Inn 8

Peraza 2

0

Inn 9

TEX
LAA

Play-by-play · 580 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  2. T9

    McCutchen popped out to second.

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  6. T9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  7. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  8. T9

    Helman grounded out to third.

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  14. T9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Michael Helman

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  15. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  16. T9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

    +2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  20. T9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  21. T9

    Yates relieved Fermin

    ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  22. T9

    Siri in left field.

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  25. B8

    · ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  26. B8

    Walton grounded out to third.

    · ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

    −0.6pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  29. B8

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Donovan Walton

    · ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

  30. B8

    · ·

    TEX 2·LAA 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

2

Runs

5

8

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

13

TB

13

1

HR

1

5

BB

3

11

K

6

20

LOB

15

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·TEX -137/LAA +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 21, 26sim 95
    113
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    24
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    123
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    305
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 93
    131
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 92
    116
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    44.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872