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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8ARI
COL

COL

20-34

1
9
ARI

ARI

28-24

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
30,037 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ARI no-vig %

63.5%

open 60.8% · +2.7

+0.5-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL67.5%56.8%ARI NO-VIG %May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

COL 1 · ARI 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +22pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0000000101
ARI241002009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 97
    274
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 93
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 91
    273
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 89
    270
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 89
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 89
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-1/VegasARI -205

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Colorado Rockies, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. QuintanaCOL−24.3pp
  2. 2K. MarteARI+19.4pp
  3. 3R. NelsonARI+13.5pp

COL · top performer

COL
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL20-34
1
9
ARI28-24
COL20-34·ARI28-24
COL

COL

20-34

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
2-441200008.7
SPRINT29.698
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-440000018.5
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-330000011.3
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-220100202.1
SPRINT26.326
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-440100016.1
SPRINT27.867
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
1-330100000.6
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-440000011.3
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-220100100.5
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-330000001.7
SPRINT2872
B. FulfordB. FulfordC
0-110000000.0
Team6-3030161034—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
1.166600024.3
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
1.00000001.7
SPRINT2872
B. CastanoB. CastanoRP
3.24110301.6
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.03220100.8
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.00000200.0
Team8.01399060—
ARI

ARI

28-24

9
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
3-4433300119.4
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
4-4414200010.2
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-330020000.3
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-330100001.2
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-331000011.4
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
2-441210015.4
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-440000000.7
A. GarciaA. Garcia★C
1-4411100210.8
T. TroyT. Troy★LF
2-442200006.7
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-110000010.0
Team13-34349139006—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
8.061133013.5
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.00000100.1
Team9.0611340—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • B. Castano
    45 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Quintana
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      27%·90.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      24%·84.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      24%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      12%·79.3 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Halvorsen
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      60%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      40%·77.6 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Sullivan
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • CH
      56%·68.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·56.3 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    103 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FC
      36%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

13

1

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-1

May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9today

Season series

ARI leads series 5-2

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9today
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+16837%
ARIARI-20567%

↘4· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

COLCOL
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

B. Castano

B. Castano

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat COL 9-1.

Win probability

ARI vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 68% WP

Freeman · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, McCarthy out at second.

ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 83% WP

Carroll · tripled to right, Marte scored.

ARITop 2nd Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 83% WP

Tovar · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Johnston out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0000000101
ARI24100200—9

Period scoring

COL won 1 · ARI won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Carroll 1

0
4

Inn 2

Marte 2

0
1

Inn 3

Waldschmidt 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Stevens 1

0

Inn 9

COL
ARI

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  2. T9

    Julien struck out looking.

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  9. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  10. T9

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  11. T9

    Fulford fouled out to first.

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  14. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Braxton Fulford

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  15. T9

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  16. T9

    Tovar flied out to right.

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  20. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Ezequiel Tovar

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  21. T9

    Clarke relieved Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 1·ARI 9

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 1·ARI 9

  24. B8

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  25. B8

    Troy grounded out to third.

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  29. B8

    Brett Sullivan pitches to Tommy Troy

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

  30. B8

    ·

    COL 1·ARI 9

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

1

Runs

9

6

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

6

TB

23

0

HR

0

3

BB

0

4

K

6

13

LOB

8

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9·COL +168/ARI -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.69

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-175

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

63.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.4± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    71.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    72.3%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    72.0%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.