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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
COL

COL

19-32

1
2
ARI

ARI

26-23

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
14,761 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

63.1%

open 63.1%

-1.0-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL67.1%59.1%ARI NO-VIG %May 20, 11 PMMay 21, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

COL 1 · ARI 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0000000101
ARI0000010012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.5pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

COL

no live price

ARI

★ best
-298DraftKings

edge +2.5pp · implied 70.4%

BookCOLARIBest edge
DraftKings+218-298★+2.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 96
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 96
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 93
    271
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    274
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 90
    270
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 90
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.56

CLV pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 21·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-1/VegasARI -218

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Colorado Rockies, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (ARI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. JohnstonCOL+44.8pp
  2. 2J. MorilloARI−44.6pp
  3. 3K. MarteARI+41.9pp

COL · top performer

COL
TJ Rumfield

TJ Rumfield

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL19-32
1
2
ARI26-23
COL19-32·ARI26-23
COL

COL

19-32

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-220100205.7
SPRINT27.969
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-3301100130.9
SPRINT27.148
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-4400000230.2
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-4401000020.2
SPRINT27.867
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-4400000115.3
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-440100008.2
SPRINT29.698
B. FulfordB. Fulford★C
0-220000009.7
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-3311000044.8
SPRINT26.326
C. StevensC. Stevens★2B
0-220000010.5
M. MoniakM. MoniakLF
0-220000011.3
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield1B
1-110100009.7
Team6-3131161026—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
Z. AgnosZ. Agnos★RP
5.010014020.5
B. CastanoB. CastanoRP
2.02113108.1
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.000022014.6
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
0.211121035.3
Team8.2422880—
ARI

ARI

26-23

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-4402001041.9
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-5501200220.3
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-2200002010.9
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-3300000026.1
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-3300001022.4
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-440000017.5
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-3311001131.2
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-110000213.9
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-331000130.1
Team4-2828242088—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
7.040014021.2
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.121111044.6
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
0.200000030.8
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.000001010.4
Team9.0611260—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • J. Morillo
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      22%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-1

May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2today
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9

Season series

ARI leads series 3-1

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2today
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+17836%
ARIARI-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 37pp · Bottom 9th Inning

COLCOL
T. Rumfield

T. Rumfield

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Z. Agnos

Z. Agnos

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.100 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat COL 2-1. Carroll's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Win probability

ARI vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 6th Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 68% WP

Goodman · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Freeman out at second.

COLTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+18pp→ 62% WP

Freeman · hit by pitch, Johnston scored, Castro to second, Rumfield to third.

ARIBottom 9th Inning · 1-2
+37pp→ 100% WP

Carroll · singled to right, Moreno scored, Marte to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0000000101
ARI0000010012

Period scoring

COL won 1 · ARI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Freeman 1

0
1

Inn 9

Carroll 1

COL
ARI

Play-by-play · 566 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 2

  2. B9

    Carroll singled to right, Moreno scored, Marte to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 2

    +37pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  8. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  10. B9

    Marte walked.

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  16. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  17. B9

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  18. B9

    Waldschmidt struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

    −8pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  24. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Ryan Waldschmidt

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  25. B9

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  26. B9

    Fernandez hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Moreno to second.

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

    −2pp

  27. B9

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

  30. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Jose Fernandez

    · ·

    COL 1·ARI 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

7

TB

4

0

HR

0

2

BB

8

6

K

8

14

LOB

15

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9.5·COL +178/ARI -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.4± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    70.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    74.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    70.2%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872