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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
COL

COL

20-33

4
5
ARI

ARI

27-24

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
33,891 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

ARI no-vig %

61.5%

open 61.6% · -0.1

-1.0-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL65.6%57.5%ARI NO-VIG %May 22, 9 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

COL 4 · ARI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0002010104
ARI003200005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.4± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.2%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    71.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    73.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    71.2%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 97
    271
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 92
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 92
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 90
    272
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 90
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-1/VegasARI -194

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Colorado Rockies, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (ARI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. LorenzenCOL−30.8pp
  2. 2K. MarteARI+28.3pp
  3. 3T. RumfieldCOL+26.8pp

COL · top performer

COL
TJ Rumfield

TJ Rumfield

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL20-33
4
5
ARI27-24
COL20-33·ARI27-24
COL

COL

20-33

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
0-550000018.6
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
2-5512000215.1
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
3-4423110026.8
SPRINT24.85
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-3301001011.8
SPRINT27.148
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-331210106.0
SPRINT26.326
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-4400100125.0
SPRINT27.867
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
0-3300101010.5
C. StevensC. Stevens★2B
0-4400000211.1
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-440000016.9
Team8-3535484137—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
5.085515130.8
K. ThompsonK. ThompsonRP
2.230022011.6
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
0.10000101.3
Team8.01155381—
ARI

ARI

27-24

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
3-4423211028.3
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-5501000210.6
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-4412100012.6
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-440120011.8
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-330000111.3
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-440100013.0
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-440000002.3
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-3311001123.6
SPRINT27.662
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
2-441200028.7
Team11-35355115138—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
5.163326011.0
B. PfaadtB. PfaadtRP
1.221100115.8
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.00001006.0
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.000001013.2
Team9.0844371—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • S. Halvorsen
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.8 mph·33% whiff

ARI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

11

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-1

May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5today
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9

Season series

ARI leads series 4-2

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5today
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 3.8h

Moneyline

COLCOL+15939%
ARIARI-19466%

↗1· 3.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning

COLCOL
T. Rumfield

T. Rumfield

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat COL 5-4.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 4th Inning · 2-5
+14pp→ 90% WP

Marte · homered to right (424 feet), Tawa scored.

COLTop 8th Inning · 4-5
+11pp→ 21% WP

Rumfield · homered to left center (410 feet).

ARITop 8th Inning · 4-5
+11pp→ 72% WP

Tovar · bunted into fielder's choice to first, Johnston to second, Freeman out at third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0002010104
ARI00320000—5

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

4

Runs

5

8

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

11

TB

16

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

7

K

8

18

LOB

21

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9.5·COL +159/ARI -194

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

-0.5 since open

Win probability

ARI vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

COL won 2 · ARI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Arenado 2

2
2

Inn 4

Johnston 1

Marte 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Thompson 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Rumfield 1

0

Inn 9

COL
ARI

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  2. T9

    Goodman struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  8. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Hunter Goodman

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  9. T9

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  10. T9

    McCarthy flied out to right.

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  13. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Jake McCarthy

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  14. T9

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  15. T9

    Karros flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

    +5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  21. T9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Kyle Karros

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  22. T9

    Sewald relieved Ginkel

    ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 4·ARI 5

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 4·ARI 5

  25. B8

    · ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  26. B8

    Carroll struck out swinging.

    · ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

    −1pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 4·ARI 5

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.14

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-180

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496