
COL
0-3

MIA
3-0
Line movement
10 snapshots
MIA spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
MIA no-vig %
63.1%
open 63.1%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIA wins
COL 3 · MIA 4 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIA +20pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MIA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-194
Close price
-194
Open no-vig
63.1%
Close no-vig
63.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
iami Marlins held off Colorado Rockies, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.
COL +1.5 cashed (MIA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
COL · top performer

Kyle Karros
3B
4-2
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MIA · top performer

Owen Caissie
RF
2-1
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


COL
0-3
| Batting | Analytics | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16.0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.2 | |
SPRINT27.148 | |||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21.7 | |
SPRINT27.969 | |||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12.3 | |
SPRINT27.867 | |||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20.6 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17.3 | |
SPRINT28.175 | |||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | |
SPRINT27.251 | |||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.3 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Team | 6-34 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | — |
| Pitching | Analytics | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22.6 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | |
| 2.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 22.9 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 67.3 | |
| Team | 8.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 | — |
MIA
3-0
| Batting | Analytics | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | |||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6.4 | |
SPRINT27.662 | |||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3.7 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5.7 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | |
SPRINT28.381 | |||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16.3 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18.3 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8.5 | |
SPRINT2872 | |||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.4 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 81.6 | |
SPRINT28.381 | |||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 78.7 | |
SPRINT28.586 | |||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31.8 | |
| Team | 8-29 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 | — |
| Pitching | Analytics | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 36.5 | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3.8 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.9 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | — |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCOL
MIA
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
8
3
Runs
4
0
Errors
2
Current series
MIA wins series 3-0
Season series
MIA leads series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 86pp · Bottom 9th Inning
K. Karros
3BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS
J. Quintana
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB
O. Caissie
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS
M. Meyer
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
How it ended
MIA beat COL 4-3. Caissie's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (86pp).
Win probability
MIA vs COL
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBeck · doubled to left, Goodman scored, Rumfield scored, and Castro scored, Beck safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Lopez.
Hern · ández struck out swinging.
Caissie · homered to right center (394 feet), Sanoja scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MIA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Period scoring
COL won 1 · MIA won 2
Inn 1
Beck 3
Lopez 1
Inn 2
Slater 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Caissie 2
Play-by-play · 552 plays
·
COL 3·MIA 4
Caissie homered to right center (394 feet), Sanoja scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
COL 3·MIA 4
+86pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
COL 3·MIA 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
COL 3·MIA 4
Victor Vodnik pitches to Owen Caissie
· ·
COL 3·MIA 4
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Sanoja doubled to center.BIG MOMENT
·
COL 3·MIA 2
+10pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Victor Vodnik pitches to Javier Sanoja
·
COL 3·MIA 2
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Hicks lined into double play, to first, Edwards doubled off first.BIG MOMENT
· ·
COL 3·MIA 2
−28pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
COL 3·MIA 2
Victor Vodnik pitches to Liam Hicks
· ·
COL 3·MIA 2
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Edwards singled to center.BIG MOMENT
·
COL 3·MIA 2
+13pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Victor Vodnik pitches to Xavier Edwards
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Johnston at first base.
COL 3·MIA 2
Castro at second base.
COL 3·MIA 2
Bottom of the 9th inning
COL 3·MIA 2
Middle of the 9th inning
COL 3·MIA 2
·
COL 3·MIA 2
McCarthy struck out swinging.
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
COL 3·MIA 2
Michael Petersen pitches to Jake McCarthy
·
COL 3·MIA 2
·
COL 3·MIA 2
Karros popped out to shortstop.
·
COL 3·MIA 2
+0.6pp
Team stats
COL
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
3
Runs
4
6
Hits
8
0
Errors
2
9
TB
14
0
HR
1
2
BB
5
11
K
8
18
LOB
13
Betting line
MIA -1.5·O/U 8·COL +159/MIA -194
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 80 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
74.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
70.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
72.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.3%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.