• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1MIA
COL

COL

0-3

3
4
MIA

MIA

3-0

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
17,355 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

63.1%

open 63.1%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL67.1%59.1%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMJun 2, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

COL 3 · MIA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL3000000003
MIA1100000024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 99
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 93
    271
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 92
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    274
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 90
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 90
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-194

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0/VegasMIA -194

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Colorado Rockies, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (MIA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. SanojaMIA+81.6pp
  2. 2O. CaissieMIA+78.7pp
  3. 3V. VodnikCOL−67.3pp

COL · top performer

COL
Kyle Karros

Kyle Karros

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Owen Caissie

Owen Caissie

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL0-3
3
4
MIA3-0
COL0-3·MIA3-0
COL

COL

0-3

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
0-4400000216.0
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-4411000133.2
SPRINT27.148
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-3311001021.7
SPRINT27.969
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-4401000212.3
SPRINT27.867
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-2210001220.6
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
1-4401300217.3
SPRINT28.175
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-440000006.5
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-330000000.8
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
2-440200002.8
SPRINT27.251
B. FulfordB. FulfordC
0-110000012.3
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-110000011.3
Team6-34343630211—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
4.142242022.6
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
0.20000209.9
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
2.210013022.9
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.032201167.3
Team8.2844581—
MIA

MIA

3-0

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-220010016.4
SPRINT27.662
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-220000213.7
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-331000125.7
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-4402100037.0
SPRINT28.381
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-2200001116.3
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-3300001118.3
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-331200018.5
SPRINT2872
D. De Los SantosD. De Los Santos★1B
1-220100008.4
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-4412000181.6
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. CaissieRF
1-2211210078.7
SPRINT28.586
L. HicksL. HicksC
0-2200000031.8
Team8-2929484158—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. MeyerM. Meyer★SP
5.053325036.5
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.01000207.0
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.00000203.8
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.00000201.9
Team9.06332110—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • J. Quintana
    78 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·90.3 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      5%·80.0 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Senzatela
    43 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      12%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      55%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·99.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Herget
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • ST
      38%·77.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.9 mph·100% whiff

MIA

  • M. Meyer
    81 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      30%·90.0 mph·69% whiff
    • ST
      23%·87.9 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      23%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      36%·83.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      21%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Petersen
    11 pitches·73% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.6 mph·83% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

Mar 27COLCOL1@MIAMIA2
Mar 28COLCOL3@MIAMIA4
Mar 29COLCOL3@MIAMIA4today

Season series

MIA leads series 3-0

Mar 27COLCOL1@MIAMIA2
Mar 28COLCOL3@MIAMIA4
Mar 29COLCOL3@MIAMIA4today
Jun 30MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 1MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 2MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 2MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+15939%
MIAMIA-19466%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 86pp · Bottom 9th Inning

COLCOL
K. Karros

K. Karros

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

MIAMIA
O. Caissie

O. Caissie

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

M. Meyer

M. Meyer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat COL 4-3. Caissie's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (86pp).

Win probability

MIA vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+27pp→ 66% WP

Beck · doubled to left, Goodman scored, Rumfield scored, and Castro scored, Beck safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Lopez.

COLBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+20pp→ 83% WP

Hern · ández struck out swinging.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+86pp→ 100% WP

Caissie · homered to right center (394 feet), Sanoja scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL3000000003
MIA1100000024

Period scoring

COL won 1 · MIA won 2

3
1

Inn 1

Beck 3

Lopez 1

0
1

Inn 2

Slater 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Caissie 2

COL
MIA

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  2. B9

    Caissie homered to right center (394 feet), Sanoja scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

    +86pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  5. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Owen Caissie

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  6. B9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  7. B9

    Sanoja doubled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

    +10pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  10. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Javier Sanoja

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  11. B9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  12. B9

    Hicks lined into double play, to first, Edwards doubled off first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

    −28pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  14. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  15. B9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  16. B9

    Edwards singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

    +13pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  18. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  19. B9

    Johnston at first base.

    COL 3·MIA 2

  20. B9

    Castro at second base.

    COL 3·MIA 2

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    COL 3·MIA 2

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    COL 3·MIA 2

  23. T9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  24. T9

    McCarthy struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  28. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Jake McCarthy

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  29. T9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

  30. T9

    Karros popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 2

    +0.6pp

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

9

TB

14

0

HR

1

2

BB

5

11

K

8

18

LOB

13

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8·COL +159/MIA -194

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    4.1± 2.0low
  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.9± 2.7low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    70.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    72.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    70.3%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.