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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PHI
COL

COL

16-25

0
6
PHI

PHI

19-22

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
44,620 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

72.2%

open 71.7% · +0.5

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL76.2%67.7%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 74.4%May 9, 6 PMMay 10, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

COL 0 · PHI 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0000000000
PHI230001006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, May 10·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -314

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Colorado Rockies, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. SuganoCOL−17.5pp
  2. 2K. SchwarberPHI+9.5pp
  3. 3C. SanchezPHI+6.1pp

COL · top performer

COL
Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL16-25
0
6
PHI19-22
COL16-25·PHI19-22
COL

COL

16-25

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
1-330100001.5
SPRINT28.175
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-440000014.3
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-440100012.8
SPRINT27.148
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-440000012.2
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-330000001.0
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-440100021.1
SPRINT2872
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-330000021.0
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
2-330200001.3
SPRINT27.867
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-330100012.6
SPRINT29.698
E. JulienE. Julien2B
0-110000010.3
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-110000010.0
Team6-33330600010—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
5.075512317.5
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.02111001.5
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
2.01000100.1
Team8.01066233—
PHI

PHI

19-22

6
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-330010011.1
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber◆Multi-HR game★DH
3-442322009.5
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-441111014.3
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-440000011.2
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
4-441400001.6
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-440000000.3
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-441100002.3
SPRINT28.688
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-331110104.5
SPRINT26.632
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-220000102.2
Team10-32326105323—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
7.06000706.1
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.00000100.5
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.00000200.2
Team9.06000100—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • T. Sugano
    81 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      25%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      20%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      16%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Agnos
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      39%·93.2 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Halvorsen
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      9%·90.2 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    103 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      45%·85.9 mph·39% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.7 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      67%·101.0 mph·63% whiff
    • KC
      20%·88.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      7%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

0

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6today

Season series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4
May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+24829%
PHIPHI-31476%

↘8· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 1st Inning

COLCOL
E. Tovar

E. Tovar

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 6 H

How it ended

PHI beat COL 6-0.

Win probability

PHI vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 82% WP

Schwarber · homered to center (432 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0000000000
PHI23000100—6

Period scoring

COL won 0 · PHI won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
3

Inn 2

Crawford 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Bohm 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

COL
PHI

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  2. T9

    Moniak struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  8. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Mickey Moniak

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  9. T9

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  10. T9

    Johnston struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  18. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Troy Johnston

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  19. T9

    Johnston hit for Doyle

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  20. T9

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  21. T9

    Castro flied out to left.

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  25. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  26. T9

    Duran relieved Bowlan

    ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 0·PHI 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 0·PHI 6

  29. B8

    · ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

  30. B8

    Bohm grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    COL 0·PHI 6

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

0

Runs

6

6

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

6

TB

20

0

HR

3

0

BB

2

10

K

3

13

LOB

12

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·COL +248/PHI -314

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 92
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 92
    272
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 92
    273
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 92
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 91
    272
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 90
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PHI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.9± 1.8high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.0± 3.7low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    71.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    74.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    70.2%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.