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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

20-32

3
2
ARI

ARI

26-24

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
29,945 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

ARI no-vig %

63.5%

open 64.5% · -0.9

+0.5-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL68.5%59.5%ARI NO-VIG %May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 3 · ARI 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0000100113
ARI0101000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.5pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

COL

no live price

ARI

★ best
-237DraftKings

edge +6.5pp · implied 67.3%

BookCOLARIBest edge
DraftKings+192-237★+6.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 21, 26sim 96
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    274
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 93
    271
    29(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 92
    270
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 92
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-1/VegasARI -237

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (ARI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. ThompsonARI−49.9pp
  2. 2S. ThompsonCOL+30.0pp
  3. 3A. SenzatelaCOL+25.5pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL20-32
3
2
ARI26-24
COL20-32·ARI26-24
COL

COL

20-32

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
0-440010005.4
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
2-4412001020.7
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-4401100022.8
SPRINT24.85
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-4400000018.0
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-4400000213.1
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-441200007.5
SPRINT27.969
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
2-4402000015.5
SPRINT27.867
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
1-3311000030.0
C. StevensC. Stevens★2B
1-3301101122.0
K. KarrosK. Karros3B
0-110000015.4
Team9-3535393024—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
6.26221302.1
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.21000008.6
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
1.200000025.5
Team9.0722130—
ARI

ARI

26-24

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-440100007.0
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-440200018.5
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-221000101.8
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-331100002.2
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-440000004.5
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
1-110120008.3
SPRINT25.818
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-440000006.4
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-4400000010.3
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
2-330200010.5
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-110000011.3
J. FernandezJ. FernandezDH
0-1100000010.6
Team7-3131272013—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
6.04110208.4
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.21001000.4
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
0.10000000.0
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.211111016.7
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.131101049.9
Team9.0933240—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-1

May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2today
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9

Season series

ARI leads series 3-2

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2today
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

COLCOL+19234%
ARIARI-23770%

↗1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 9th Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
L. Gurriel Jr.

L. Gurriel Jr.

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

COL beat ARI 3-2. Stevens's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+25pp→ 56% WP

Rumfield · doubled to right, Goodman scored.

ARIBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 76% WP

Carroll · reached on infield single to second.

COLTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+31pp→ 80% WP

Stevens · singled to right, S. Thompson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0000100113
ARI0101000002

Period scoring

COL won 3 · ARI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Jr. 1

1
0

Inn 5

McCarthy 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Rumfield 1

1
0

Inn 9

Stevens 1

COL
ARI

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    COL 3·ARI 2

  2. B9

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  3. B9

    Del Castillo popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  8. B9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  9. B9

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  10. B9

    Moreno grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

    −9pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  13. B9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  14. B9

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  15. B9

    Fernandez flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

    −11pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  22. B9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Jose Fernandez

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  23. B9

    Fernandez hit for Barrosa

    ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    COL 3·ARI 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    COL 3·ARI 2

  26. T9

    · ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  27. T9

    Karros struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

    +5pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 3·ARI 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

11

TB

9

0

HR

0

2

BB

1

4

K

3

18

LOB

11

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9·COL +192/ARI -237

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.82

CLV pp

Open price

-207

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.4± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.4%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    70.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    71.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    71.0%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.