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BOT 6TH+2PIT

PIT

22-18

15-24

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

62.8%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 53.5% PIT

PIT 4 · 2 SF

PIT +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsSF leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingPITTop 6th Inning · 4-2
+13pp→ 80% WP
Horwitz · doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.
Lead flipPITTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+17pp→ 65% WP
Cruz · homered to left center (360 feet).
ClutchSFBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 50% WP
Ramos · homered to left center (437 feet).
SwingSFBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 36% WP
Arraez · singled to left, Lee scored.
SwingPITTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 73% WP
Griffin · homered to center (413 feet).

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.76

B. Chandler

1-4 · 4.76 ERA

T. Mahle

1-4 · 5.00 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.1% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
46.5%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.2%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.7%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

2.8%

-43.7ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

SF vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 59 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.5low
Landen RouppSF
6.4± 1.6low
Robbie RaySF
5.9± 1.8low

Hits

Jesus RodriguezSF
1.3± 1.3low
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.5high
Brandon LowePIT
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.5± 2.5high
Jesus RodriguezSF
2.0± 2.9low
Casey SchmittSF
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.2high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
0.7± 0.9high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.6± 3.2low
Tyler MahleSF
2.9± 4.3low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT★

Pirates

22-18

vs53.5%PIT

Giants

15-24

PIT 53.5%win prob46.5% SF

PIT 1509 · SF 1461Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10Bot 6thSeriestied 1-1VegasSF -126

Updated 0s ago

PIT · top performer

Oneil Cruz

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

SF · top performer

Heliot Ramos

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 6th

PIT22-18

SF15-24

PIT22-18SF15-24

PIT

22-18

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
O. Cruz★CF	1-2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1
SPRINT28.483
B. Lowe★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Gonzales★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586
R. O'Hearn★RF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.735
M. Ozuna★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Horwitz★1B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT24.85
K. Griffin★SS	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT29.899
N. Yorke★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Davis★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	5-23	23	4	5	4	2	2	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
B. Chandler★SP	5.0	5	2	2	1	3	1

Team	5.0	6	2	2	1	3	1

15-24

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Lee★RF	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
L. Arraez★2B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
SPRINT26.632
C. Schmitt★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Devers★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
H. Ramos★LF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT27.251
W. Adames★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.457
M. Chapman★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Gilbert★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rodríguez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	6-21	21	2	6	2	1	1	3

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
T. Mahle★SP	5.2	5	4	4	2	8	2
K. WinnRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	6.0	5	4	4	2	8	2

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

B. Chandler
77 pitches19% CSW
- FF
  62%98.2 mph3% whiff
- CH
  21%91.3 mph14% whiff
- SL
  10%90.6 mph50% whiff
- ST
  6%87.1 mph0% whiff
I. Mattson
4 pitches25% CSW
- CH
  50%84.4 mph— whiff
- FF
  50%93.9 mph0% whiff

T. Mahle
97 pitches31% CSW
- FF
  47%92.1 mph29% whiff
- FC
  24%88.6 mph22% whiff
- FS
  22%85.7 mph27% whiff
- SL
  7%85.5 mph25% whiff
K. Winn
2 pitches50% CSW
- SI
  100%94.8 mph50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 9

PIT2@

SF5

May 10

PIT13@

SF3

May 10

PIT@

SFtoday

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 9

PIT2@

SF5

May 10

PIT13@

SF3

May 10

PIT@

SFtoday

Sep 1

SF@

PITupcoming

Sep 2

SF@

PITupcoming

Sep 3

SF@

PITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+10449%

SF-12656%

3· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

PITSP

B. Chandler

#36 · 1-4

ERA

4.76

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@

ARI5.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 KL(1-4)

4/29vs

STL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 KL(1-3)

4/24@

TEX4.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 KL(1-2)

SFSP

T. Mahle

#54 · 1-4

ERA

5.00

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

TB5.1 IP · 0 ER · 5 K-

4/28@

PHI5.0 IP · 5 ER · 3 KL(1-4)

4/23vs

LAD7.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 KW(1-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

PIT4L · 5R

1
O. Cruz
CF · #15
L
2
B. Lowe
2B · #5
L
3
N. Gonzales
3B · #3
R
4
R. O'Hearn
RF · #29
L
5
M. Ozuna
DH · #24
R
6
S. Horwitz
1B · #2
L
7
K. Griffin
SS · #6
R
8
N. Yorke
LF · #38
R
9
H. Davis
C · #32
R

SF4L · 5R

1
J. Lee
RF · #51
L
2
L. Arraez
2B · #1
L
3
C. Schmitt
1B · #10
R
4
R. Devers
DH · #16
L
5
H. Ramos
LF · #17
R
6
W. Adames
SS · #2
R
7
M. Chapman
3B · #26
R
8
D. Gilbert
CF · #0
L
9
J. Rodriguez
C · #79
R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 6th

Game flowPIT ↔ SF

Recent swing: 17pp · Top 5th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

PIT

O. Cruz

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

B. Chandler

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 3 ER

H. Ramos

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. Mahle

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 10 K · 5 ER

How it's going

PIT lead SF 4-2 (Bot 6th).

Win probability

SF vs PIT

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SFBottom 4th Inning · 2-2

+15pp→ 50% WP

Ramos · homered to left center (437 feet).

PITTop 5th Inning · 3-2

+17pp→ 65% WP

Cruz · homered to left center (360 feet).

PITTop 6th Inning · 4-2

+13pp→ 80% WP

Horwitz · doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
PIT	1	1	0	0	1	1	4
SF	0	0	1	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

PIT won 4 · SF won 2

Inn 1

Gonzales 1

Inn 2

Griffin 1

Inn 3

Arraez 1

Inn 4

Ramos 1

Inn 5

Cruz 1

Inn 6

Horwitz 1

PIT

Play-by-play · 352 plays

period

event

player

B6
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Isaac Mattson pitches to Heliot Ramos
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Devers doubled to center.BIG MOMENT
·
PIT 4·SF 2
+11pp
B6
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Isaac Mattson pitches to Rafael Devers
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Mattson relieved Chandler
·
PIT 4·SF 2
B6
Bottom of the 6th inning
PIT 4·SF 2
M6
Middle of the 6th inning
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Griffin grounded out to second.
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Keaton Winn pitches to Konnor Griffin
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Winn relieved Mahle
·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Horwitz doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
−13pp
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 3·SF 2
T6
Tyler Mahle pitches to Spencer Horwitz
· ·
PIT 4·SF 2
T6
· ·
PIT 3·SF 2
T6
Ozuna flied out to second.
· ·
PIT 3·SF 2
+3pp
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 3·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
PIT 3·SF 2
T6
Tyler Mahle pitches to Marcell Ozuna
· ·
PIT 3·SF 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8·PIT +104/SF -126

DraftKings · via ESPN