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FINAL+5SEA
HOU

HOU

6-10

1
6
SEA

SEA

7-9

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
29,071 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SEA no-vig %

63.0%

open 63.0%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL67.0%59.0%SEA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

HOU 1 · SEA 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000100001
SEA112002006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-0/VegasSEA -193

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Houston Astros, 6–1.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-10
1
6
SEA7-9
HOU6-10·SEA7-9
HOU

HOU

6-10

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
3-44030000
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-33000011
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000001
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000001
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-33000001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-33111100
SPRINT25.513
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-33000002
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-33000001
Team5-2929151118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BoltonC. Bolton★SP
1.0122410
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
2.0222330
C. RoaC. RoaRP
2.2422120
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.1000000
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0100110
Team8.0866970
SEA

SEA

7-9

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-33101001
SPRINT25.18
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-55000003
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44021011
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-33100011
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
3-44231010
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
3-55132000
SPRINT28.175
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-11100030
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33000011
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-22001020
Team8-3030686097
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
7.0411171
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000000
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
1.0100010
Team9.0511181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Bolton
    42 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      40%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Roa
    40 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      33%·88.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Murray
    38 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.8 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      3%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      44%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      46%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·84.5 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    85 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.8 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      12%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Criswell
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      44%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·78.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6today
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6

Season series

SEA leads series 3-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6today
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6
May 12SEASEA3@HOUHOU1
May 13SEASEA10@HOUHOU2
May 14SEASEA3@HOUHOU4
May 14SEASEA8@HOUHOU3
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 16SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 23HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 24HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+15939%
SEASEA-19366%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

HOUHOU
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Roa

C. Roa

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.550 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 6-1.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 75% WP

Arozarena · singled to center, Donovan scored, Naylor to second.

SEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 84% WP

Rodr · íguez walked, Crawford scored, Young to second, Canzone to third.

SEABottom 6th Inning · 1-4
+8pp→ 92% WP

Raleigh · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000100001
SEA11200200—6

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

1

Runs

6

5

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

9

TB

11

1

HR

0

1

BB

9

8

K

7

5

LOB

28

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·HOU +159/SEA -193

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

SEA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · SEA won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Arozarena 1

0
1

Inn 2

Rodr 1

0
2

Inn 3

Young 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Diaz 1

0
2

Inn 6

Raley 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
SEA

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  2. T9

    Paredes struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  7. T9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Isaac Paredes

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  8. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  9. T9

    Alvarez lined into double play, to first, Altuve doubled off first.

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

    +1pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  14. T9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  15. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  16. T9

    Altuve reached on infield single to second.

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

    −0.9pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  18. T9

    Cooper Criswell pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  19. T9

    Criswell relieved Ferrer

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  22. B8

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  23. B8

    Raley grounded out to first.

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  26. B8

    Arozarena stole second.

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  27. B8

    Arozarena stole second.

    ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

  30. B8

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Luke Raley

    · ·

    HOU 1·SEA 6

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+159

Open no-vig

37.0%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SEA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 13, 26sim 97
    182
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    237
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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