Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+7TOR

TOR

16-17

114

MIN

14-20

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

30,687 attended

Line movement

96 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
45.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.2%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.4± 1.1high
Josh BellMIN
1.2± 0.7high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.8± 2.5high
Josh BellMIN
2.0± 1.5high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Josh BellMIN
0.9± 0.9high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 1.2high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.3± 3.6low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

MIN

.705

OPS

.719

▶

.734

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.75

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 11 · MIN 4 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	8	0	11
MIN	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.212	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.298	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.331	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.235	5	2	2	2	1	0	0
L. Sosa2B	.297	5	2	2	2	1	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.231	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.286	2	2	1	2	1	2	0
D. SchneiderLF	.137	3	1	1	2	0	1	2
B. ValenzuelaC	.209	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
J. SanchezRF	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	11	9	11	4	5	5

Player

.212

.298

.331

.235

.297

.231

.286

.137

.209

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	7.0	7	4	3	1	7	106
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
S. MilesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	7	4	3	1	7	133

Player

D. CeaseSP

7.0

106

M. FluhartyRP

1.0

S. MilesRP

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.260	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.282	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.287	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.214	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. WallnerRF	.162	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.255	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
T. GraySS	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	7	3	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PrielippSP	5.0	3	2	2	2	4	91
J. TopaRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	10
K. FunderburkRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	14
L. GarciaRP	0.0	3	4	4	1	0	18
A. BandaRP	1.0	2	4	3	1	0	18
J. KleinSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	9	11	10	5	5	163

Team

TOR

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.