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FINAL+2MIN
MIN

MIN

24-27

8
6
BOS

BOS

22-28

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
34,740 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

BOS no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

+0.5-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL62.3%54.3%BOS NO-VIG %May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 8 · BOS 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0300004018
BOS4002000006

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.0pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best
+184DraftKings

edge +28.0pp · implied 33.1%

BOS

no live price

BookMINBOSBest edge
DraftKings+184★-247+28.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 3-0/VegasBOS -156

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 8–6.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nick Sogard

Nick Sogard

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN24-27
8
6
BOS22-28
MIN24-27·BOS22-28
MIN

MIN

24-27

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-55123102
SPRINT29.597
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44200013
SPRINT26.428
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-55122100
SPRINT27.867
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44110000
G. GonzalezG. Gonzalez★RF
1-22110020
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
2-55121002
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-55000000
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT28.688
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-44000003
Team10-383881082411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PrielippC. Prielipp★SP
4.0765310
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
2.0000130
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.0000010
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
0.2000110
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.1000010
Team9.0765570
BOS

BOS

22-28

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44101012
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000010
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-55121000
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44111001
SPRINT26.838
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
1-22111011
SPRINT2744
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
2-33120011
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-33001001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33110011
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22001000
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
0-11000000
M. GasperM. GasperC
0-11000000
Team7-3232676057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. TolleP. Tolle★SP
6.0433290
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
0.2444112
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1100000
T. GuerreroT. GuerreroRP
1.0000110
Team9.010874112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • C. Prielipp
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      32%·94.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      26%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Adams
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Orze
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      36%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Banda
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      43%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      38%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.7 mph·100% whiff

BOS

  • P. Tolle
    85 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.6 mph·32% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.2 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      11%·84.0 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.1 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.8 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      39%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      52%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      30%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Guerrero
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      81%·98.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      19%·89.6 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

8

Runs

6

2

Errors

2

Current series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6today
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5

Season series

MIN leads series 3-1

Apr 13BOSBOS6@MINMIN13
Apr 14BOSBOS0@MINMIN6
Apr 15BOSBOS9@MINMIN5
May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6today
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+12944%
BOSBOS-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 7th Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

C. Prielipp

C. Prielipp

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

BOSBOS
N. Sogard

N. Sogard

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

P. Tolle

P. Tolle

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat BOS 8-6. Martin's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 7th Inning · 7-6
+33pp→ 61% WP

Martin · homered to left center (377 feet), Lee scored.

MINTop 9th Inning · 7-6
+14pp→ 84% WP

Lee · safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Sogard.

MINBottom 9th Inning · 8-6
+13pp→ 100% WP

Abreu · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Duran out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0300004018
BOS4002000006

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · BOS won 2

0
4

Inn 1

Abreu 1

3
0

Inn 2

Kreidler 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Durbin 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Buxton 2

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Larnach 1

MIN
BOS

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  3. B9

    Abreu grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Duran out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  9. B9

    Anthony Banda pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  10. B9

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  11. B9

    Rafaela flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

    −8pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  14. B9

    Anthony Banda pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  15. B9

    Duran struck out, Duran to first on wild pitch by Banda.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

    +13pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  21. B9

    Anthony Banda pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  22. B9

    Larnach in left field.

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  25. T9

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  26. T9

    Keaschall grounded into fielder's choice to third, Larnach out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 8·BOS 6

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

8

Runs

6

10

Hits

7

2

Errors

2

17

TB

10

2

HR

0

4

BB

5

11

K

7

25

LOB

12

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7·MIN +129/BOS -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.17

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 96
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    126
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    129
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    129
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs