• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4LAD
LAD

LAD

33-20

5
1
MIL

MIL

30-20

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
40,973 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

MIL no-vig %

38.5%

open 39.2% · -0.6

+2.0-0.5MIL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL43.2%34.5%MIL NO-VIG %May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · MIL 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0001400005
MIL0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.0pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

MIL

★ best
+124DraftKings

edge +8.0pp · implied 42.7%

BookLADMILBest edge
DraftKings-149+124★+8.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -149

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 5–1.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Garrett Mitchell

Garrett Mitchell

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD33-20
5
1
MIL30-20
LAD33-20·MIL30-20
LAD

LAD

33-20

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33000020
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-55110001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-33100023
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-55122001
SPRINT26.123
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44112102
SPRINT28.175
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT28.381
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-33010010
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000003
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33000001
Team6-33335641612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
7.0711130
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0000020
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000020
Team9.0711170
MIL

MIL

30-20

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-44010000
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44010001
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-22110000
SPRINT2744
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-44010001
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-22010011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33001000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-33010000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-33000001
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-11000001
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000001
Team7-3131171017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
4.0433470
SS. DrohanRP
3.0222051
C. RodriguezC. RodriguezRP
2.0000200
Team9.06556121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • Y. Yamamoto
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      29%·95.4 mph·30% whiff
    • FS
      20%·91.0 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      18%·77.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.1 mph·20% whiff
  • W. Klein
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      63%·99.1 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      31%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Scott
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      40%·89.3 mph·25% whiff

MIL

  • B. Sproat
    89 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      30%·95.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.1 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.8 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      7%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      4%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Drohan
    40 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.0 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Rodriguez
    38 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      32%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      3%·78.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1today

Season series

LAD lead series 2-1

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1today
Aug 14MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 16MILMIL@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-14960%
MILMIL+12345%

↗4· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 5th Inning

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
G. Mitchell

G. Mitchell

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIL 5-1. Tucker's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 57% WP

Turang · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Chourio out at second.

LADTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 55% WP

Ohtani · grounded out to first.

LADTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+19pp→ 85% WP

Tucker · tripled to right, Betts scored and Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0001400005
MIL0100000001

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Frelick 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Ohtani 1

4
0

Inn 5

Tucker 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
MIL

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  3. B9

    Perkins struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  11. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  12. B9

    Perkins hit for Mitchell

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  13. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  14. B9

    Vaughn grounded out to first.

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  16. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  17. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  18. B9

    Rengifo struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

    −1pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  26. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Luis Rengifo

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  27. B9

    Scott relieved Klein

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  28. B9

    Rengifo hit for Bauers

    ·

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·MIL 1

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·MIL 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

5

Runs

1

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

7

1

HR

0

6

BB

1

12

K

7

17

LOB

9

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·LAD -149/MIL +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.63

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+148

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

38.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 98
    191
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 92
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 91
    1911
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 88
    300
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 87
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 87
    103
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs