
NYY
26-15

MIL
22-16
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
MIL no-vig %
46.8%
open 46.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIL wins
NYY 3 · MIL 4 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIL +0pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
ilwaukee Brewers held off New York Yankees, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.
MIL +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYY · top performer

Aaron Judge
RF
3-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MIL · top performer

Brice Turang
2B
4-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYY
26-15
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.560 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.278 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 6-31 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 8.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
MIL
22-16
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT24.96 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
SPRINT24.12 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 5-29 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantNYY
MIL
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
5
3
Runs
4
1
Errors
0
Current series
MIL wins series 3-0
Season series
MIL wins series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 9th Inning
A. Judge
RFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
C. Rodon
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 5 BB
B. Turang
2BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
L. Henderson
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
How it ended
MIL beat NYY 4-3. Turang's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPerkins · singled to center, Vaughn scored and Rengifo scored, Perkins to second.
Chisholm Jr. · doubled to right, Bellinger scored.
Turang · homered to center (411 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Team stats
NYY
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
3
Runs
4
6
Hits
5
1
Errors
0
11
TB
8
1
HR
1
5
BB
6
10
K
12
7
LOB
21
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 8·NYY +100/MIL -120
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Win probability
MIL vs NYY
Period scoring
NYY won 3 · MIL won 2
Inn 1
Judge 1
Inn 2
Jones 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Perkins 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Jr. 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Turang 1
Play-by-play · 557 plays
·
NYY 3·MIL 4
Turang homered to center (411 feet).BIG MOMENT
·
NYY 3·MIL 4
+46pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 3·MIL 4
David Bednar pitches to Brice Turang
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 4
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Chourio struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
−6pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
David Bednar pitches to Jackson Chourio
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Ortiz struck out swinging.
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
+0.5pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
David Bednar pitches to Joey Ortiz
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Bednar relieved Hill
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Bottom of the 9th inning
NYY 3·MIL 3
Middle of the 9th inning
NYY 3·MIL 3
·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Escarra grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caballero out at second.
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Abner Uribe pitches to J.C. Escarra
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Jones flied out to left.BIG MOMENT
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
+7pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYY 3·MIL 3
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+104
Close price
+104
Open no-vig
46.8%
Close no-vig
46.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 59 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.9%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
50.1%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.18 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort