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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
NYY

NYY

26-15

3
4
MIL

MIL

22-16

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
40,175 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL50.8%42.8%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 50.1%May 9, 6 PMMay 10, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

NYY 3 · MIL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY1100010003
MIL0003000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Live · 5
  • MLBBot 6
    PIT 4@SF 4
    +6.8pppeak
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 2@SD 0
    -54.0pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 4@LAD 0
    -55.1pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    NYM 1@ARI 5
    +40.4pplow
  • NBA8:33 - 4th
    NY 130@PHI 87
    -52.7pplow
MLB·Sun, May 10·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -120

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off New York Yankees, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

MIL +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY26-15
3
4
MIL22-16
NYY26-15·MIL22-16
NYY

NYY

26-15

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44010002
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000001
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33111112
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-22110020
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-44000001
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT28.278
S. JonesS. Jones★CF
1-44011001
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
0-33000011
Team6-31313631510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
4.1233540
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2000020
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
0.2000110
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.1100030
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0100000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
0.2111021
Team8.25446121
MIL

MIL

22-16

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★CF
0-44000011
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-44121101
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-22010021
SPRINT24.96
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★C
0-33100013
SPRINT24.12
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-22100012
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-33001002
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★LF
1-22012000
SPRINT28.586
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44000001
S. FrelickS. FrelickRF
0-11000010
Team5-29294541612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. HendersonL. Henderson★SP
5.0422151
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0111200
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000110
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0100030
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000110
Team9.06335101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    78 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.7 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FS
      50%·79.7 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.4 mph·33% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      56%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bird
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      56%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      44%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      38%·76.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·91.9 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Hill
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      86%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • L. Henderson
    74 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      38%·82.8 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      5%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      30%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      5%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      44%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·92.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      79%·99.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Megill
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      62%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      38%·87.2 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 8NYYNYY0@MILMIL6
May 9NYYNYY3@MILMIL4
May 10NYYNYY3@MILMIL4today

Season series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 8NYYNYY0@MILMIL6
May 9NYYNYY3@MILMIL4
May 10NYYNYY3@MILMIL4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY+10050%
MILMIL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 9th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 5 BB

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Henderson

L. Henderson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat NYY 4-3. Turang's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+26pp→ 72% WP

Perkins · singled to center, Vaughn scored and Rengifo scored, Perkins to second.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+17pp→ 44% WP

Chisholm Jr. · doubled to right, Bellinger scored.

MILBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+45pp→ 100% WP

Turang · homered to center (411 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY1100010003
MIL0003000014

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

11

TB

8

1

HR

1

5

BB

6

10

K

12

7

LOB

21

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8·NYY +100/MIL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIL vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · MIL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Judge 1

1
0

Inn 2

Jones 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Perkins 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Turang 1

NYY
MIL

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 4

  2. B9

    Turang homered to center (411 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 4

    +46pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 4

  4. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 4

  5. B9

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  6. B9

    Chourio struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

    −6pp

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  10. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Jackson Chourio

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  11. B9

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  12. B9

    Ortiz struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

    +0.5pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  17. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Joey Ortiz

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  18. B9

    Bednar relieved Hill

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  21. T9

    ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  22. T9

    Escarra grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caballero out at second.

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  25. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to J.C. Escarra

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  27. T9

    Jones flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

    +7pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 3·MIL 3

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 59 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    8.8± 2.8low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.6± 1.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    2.0± 1.9low
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.5high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.4± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.7± 3.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 1.6high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.0± 1.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 3.3low
  • Max FriedNYY
    2.1± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • David HamiltonMIL · 3B
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 65-39
59%Last 30 · 261-178
Receipts →