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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TB
TB

TB

34-15

4
2
NYY

NYY

30-22

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
41,358 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

58.3%

open 57.2% · +1.1

+0.5-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL62.3%53.2%NYY NO-VIG %May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · NYY 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000404
NYY0000100102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.8pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

TB

★ best
+132DraftKings

edge +9.8pp · implied 40.4%

NYY

no live price

BookTBNYYBest edge
DraftKings+132★-175+9.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.09

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasNYY -154

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into New York Yankees and beat them, 4–2.

TB +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Cedric Mullins

Cedric Mullins

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB34-15
4
2
NYY30-22
TB34-15·NYY30-22
TB

TB

34-15

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-55120000
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44110011
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-44111001
SPRINT25.29
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33000011
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33012010
SPRINT26.838
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-33010000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.662
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-44000002
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-33000012
Team8-3333484047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
6.0911111
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.2211020
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1000000
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000110
Team9.01122241
NYY

NYY

30-22

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
3-55030000
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000011
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44010000
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT27.560
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-44000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.175
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-44000002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33111110
SPRINT25.18
Team11-36362112124
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. ColeG. Cole★SP
6.0200320
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
0.1200000
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2000020
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0100030
Team9.0843470

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • N. Martinez
    94 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      29%·78.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      28%·93.0 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      41%·81.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      17%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      42%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      100%·90.9 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • G. Cole
    72 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FS
      50%·91.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      40%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      55%·81.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      91%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • FS
      63%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      71%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·99.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

11

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2today
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2

Season series

TB leads series 4-0

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5
May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2today
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2
Jul 6NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 7NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 8NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 9NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 23TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 24TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+12844%
NYYNYY-15461%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 8th Inning

TBTB
C. Mullins

C. Mullins

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
A. Wells

A. Wells

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

G. Cole

G. Cole

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TB beat NYY 4-2. Aranda's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 73% WP

Wells · homered to right center (392 feet).

TBTop 7th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 40% WP

Mullins · doubled to right, DeLuca to third.

TBTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+23pp→ 72% WP

Aranda · doubled to center, Simpson scored, Caminero to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000404
NYY0000100102

Period scoring

TB won 1 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
1

Inn 8

Palacios 2

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 9

TB
NYY

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 4·NYY 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  3. B9

    Judge flied out to center.

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  7. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Aaron Judge

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  9. B9

    Grisham grounded out to shortstop, Wells to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    −7pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  14. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Trent Grisham

    · ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  15. B9

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  16. B9

    Wells walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    +8pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  25. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Austin Wells

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  26. B9

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  27. B9

    McMahon struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

    −5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·NYY 2

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

2

8

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

10

TB

19

0

HR

1

4

BB

2

7

K

4

14

LOB

20

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·TB +128/NYY -154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Carlos RodonNYY
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    51.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 94
    300
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    191
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    103
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 93
    100
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 93
    151
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 93
    103
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175