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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYY
TB

TB

34-16

0
2
NYY

NYY

31-22

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
41,396 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYY no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL59.3%51.1%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 52.8%May 23, 6 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TB 0 · NYY 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000000
NYY0000000022

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.0pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

TB

★ best
+108DraftKings

edge +2.0pp · implied 45.2%

NYY

no live price

BookTBNYYBest edge
DraftKings+108★-140+2.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 94
    300
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 92
    151
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 91
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 91
    103
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 90
    162
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 90
    191
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasNYY -141

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Tampa Bay Rays, 2–0.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB34-16
0
2
NYY31-22
TB34-16·NYY31-22
TB

TB

34-16

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.483
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000001
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33010010
SPRINT26.225
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-44000001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33010010
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-11000010
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
0-22000001
Team7-3131070056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
7.0500160
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0222101
Team8.0722261
NYY

NYY

31-22

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
2-33020011
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44122100
SPRINT26.838
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000000
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.560
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-22000011
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.175
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33000000
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000000
Team7-2727272126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. WeathersR. Weathers★SP
7.0400340
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0200100
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0100120
Team9.0700560

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    92 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      30%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.9 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      21%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      71%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.4 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • R. Weathers
    95 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      72%·87.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      28%·76.6 mph·50% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FS
      47%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·81.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2today

Season series

TB leads series 4-1

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5
May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2today
Jul 6NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 7NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 8NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 9NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 23TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 24TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+11746%
NYYNYY-14159%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

R. Weathers

R. Weathers

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TB 2-0. Judge's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 59% WP

McMahon · struck out swinging.

TBBottom 8th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 45% WP

Wells · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, McMahon out at second.

NYYBottom 9th Inning · 0-2
+24pp→ 100% WP

Judge · homered to right center (363 feet), Schuemann scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000000
NYY0000000022

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

0

Runs

2

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

10

0

HR

1

5

BB

2

6

K

6

12

LOB

6

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7·TB +117/NYY -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

NYY vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TB won 0 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Judge 2

TB
NYY

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 2

  2. B9

    Judge homered to right center (363 feet), Schuemann scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 2

    +24pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 2

  4. B9

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Aaron Judge

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Schuemann ran for Grisham

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  6. B9

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  7. B9

    Grisham walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

    +9pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  14. B9

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Trent Grisham

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  15. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 0·NYY 0

  16. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 0·NYY 0

  17. T9

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  18. T9

    Palacios struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

    +10pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  24. T9

    Tim Hill pitches to Richie Palacios

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  25. T9

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  26. T9

    Mullins singled to left, Walls to second.

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

    −4pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  29. T9

    Tim Hill pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

  30. T9

    ·

    TB 0·NYY 0

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Carlos RodonNYY
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175