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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8LAD
LAD

LAD

32-20

11
3
MIL

MIL

30-19

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
38,136 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

MIL no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL51.4%42.8%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 50.6%May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 11 · MIL 3 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD00040003411
MIL3000000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.7pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best
+333DraftKings

edge +27.7pp · implied 21.7%

MIL

no live price

BookLADMILBest edge
DraftKings+333★-505+27.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.51

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

47.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -115

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 11–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD32-20
11
3
MIL30-19
LAD32-20·MIL30-19
LAD

LAD

32-20

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55021012
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-66000001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-11310040
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44211010
SPRINT28.175
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44111010
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44210010
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
3-44236111
SPRINT28.381
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33101010
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
1-44011011
Team10-35351110111115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
5.0432240
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000120
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0000210
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0100030
J. HernándezJ. HernándezRP
1.0000010
Team9.05325110
MIL

MIL

30-19

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-55120003
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-22111021
SPRINT28.586
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-44000000
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33100012
SPRINT27.148
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT24.12
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-44000003
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT28.790
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000010
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-33000000
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000001
Team5-31313520511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. GasserR. Gasser★SP
4.1444441
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.2000100
D. HallD. HallRP
1.1233200
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.2444410
Team9.01011111151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • R. Sasaki
    87 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      28%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FO
      1%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      61%·92.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      35%·83.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Scott
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      59%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      41%·89.5 mph·67% whiff
  • K. Hurt
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      67%·87.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.0 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Hernández
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      57%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      43%·96.4 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • R. Gasser
    89 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      33%·87.8 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.8 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    49 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      45%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      35%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.6 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Hall
    29 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      31%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    26 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.3 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      31%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.6 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

11

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3today
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3today
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1
Aug 14MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 16MILMIL@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-11553%
MILMIL-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 4th Inning

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

R. Gasser

R. Gasser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIL 11-3. T. Hern's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 4th Inning · 4-3
+29pp→ 58% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left (357 feet), Pages scored and Tucker scored.

MILBottom 6th Inning · 4-3
+13pp→ 49% WP

Yelich · walked.

LADBottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+11pp→ 74% WP

Vaughn · grounded out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD00040003411
MIL3000000003

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · MIL won 1

0
3

Inn 1

Turang 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Hern 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Smith 1

4
0

Inn 9

Hern 2

LAD
MIL

Play-by-play · 653 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  3. B9

    Chourio struck out looking.

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  11. B9

    Jonathan Hernandez pitches to Jackson Chourio

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  12. B9

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  13. B9

    Hamilton grounded out to first.

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  16. B9

    Jonathan Hernandez pitches to David Hamilton

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  17. B9

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  18. B9

    Ortiz flied out to right.

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  24. B9

    Jonathan Hernandez pitches to Joey Ortiz

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  25. B9

    J. Hernández relieved Scott

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  28. T9

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  29. T9

    Betts grounded out to third.

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 11·MIL 3

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

11

Runs

3

10

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

18

TB

8

1

HR

0

11

BB

5

5

K

11

21

LOB

13

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAD -115/MIL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 91
    191
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 91
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 85
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 25, 25sim 84
    194
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 83
    166
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 83
    300
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.