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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4MIL
LAD

LAD

31-20

1
5
MIL

MIL

30-18

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
36,446 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

MIL no-vig %

49.0%

open 46.8% · +2.2

+2.0-0.5MIL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL53.0%42.8%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 51.0%May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

LAD 1 · MIL 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000001001
MIL410000005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

LAD

no live price

MIL

no live price

BookLADMILBest edge
DraftKings-109-110+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 98
    195
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 91
    1911
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 90
    300
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 89
    103
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 88
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.44

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+104

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

49.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasMIL -110

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 5–1.

MIL +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
William Contreras

William Contreras

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD31-20
1
5
MIL30-18
LAD31-20·MIL30-18
LAD

LAD

31-20

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33011011
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33000011
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-22000022
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000011
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000011
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT28.381
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-22000001
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-22000000
Team3-2929131069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
5.0855241
P. GervaseP. GervaseRP
2.0100100
J. HernándezJ. HernándezRP
1.0000000
Team8.0955341
MIL

MIL

30-18

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-44110002
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
3-44233100
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000010
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-44121000
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010000
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-22001000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-11000021
Team9-3030595134
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. HendersonL. Henderson★SP
5.0200370
SS. DrohanRP
1.1110220
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.1000100
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
1.1000000
Team9.0310690

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • J. Wrobleski
    100 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·72.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Gervase
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      43%·83.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      24%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hernández
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.6 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • L. Henderson
    85 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.1 mph·32% whiff
    • CH
      27%·83.8 mph·56% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      2%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Drohan
    39 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      31%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    32 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      56%·97.6 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Patrick
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FC
      55%·89.4 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      9%·84.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

9

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5today
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5today
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1
Aug 14MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 16MILMIL@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-10952%
MILMIL-11052%

↘205· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

L. Henderson

L. Henderson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat LAD 5-1. Contreras's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+18pp→ 82% WP

Contreras · homered to left (410 feet), Chourio scored and Turang scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000001001
MIL41000000—5

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · MIL won 2

0
4

Inn 1

Contreras 3

0
1

Inn 2

Vaughn 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
MIL

Play-by-play · 575 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  2. T9

    Ohtani flied out to left.

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  8. T9

    Chad Patrick pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  9. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  10. T9

    Rojas fouled out to third.

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  19. T9

    Chad Patrick pitches to Miguel Rojas

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  20. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  21. T9

    Rushing flied out to third.

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

    +0.7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  29. T9

    Chad Patrick pitches to Dalton Rushing

    ·

    LAD 1·MIL 5

  30. T9

    Perkins in center field.

    LAD 1·MIL 5

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

5

3

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

3

TB

13

0

HR

1

6

BB

3

9

K

4

23

LOB

8

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·LAD -109/MIL -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    52.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.