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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

27-27

2
1
ATL

ATL

36-18

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
36,429 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

59.8%

open 60.8% · -1.0

+0.5-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.8%55.3%ATL NO-VIG %May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 2 · ATL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000100102
ATL0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.6pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ATL

★ best
+236DraftKings

edge +38.6pp · implied 28.0%

BookWSHATLBest edge
DraftKings-328+236★+38.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 96
    202
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    142
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    290
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    22
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    142
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasATL -157

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ozzie Albies

Ozzie Albies

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH27-27
2
1
ATL36-18
WSH27-27·ATL36-18
WSH

WSH

27-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-22100020
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.838
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-22000011
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33000010
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44010002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33010001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT29.899
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-44000000
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
1-11011000
SPRINT26.735
Team6-3131262045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. GriffinF. Griffin★SP
6.0300160
A. AlvarezA. AlvarezRP
1.1100110
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
0.2211000
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
0.1000100
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
0.2000010
Team9.0611380
ATL

ATL

36-18

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-33000021
SPRINT26.838
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-44000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-44130000
SPRINT27.354
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-44020002
SPRINT27.765
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000000
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-44001001
SPRINT30.499+
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000011
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-22000001
J. MateoJ. MateoSS
0-11000000
C. TrompC. TrompC
0-11000001
Team6-3333161038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
5.2511220
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
0.1000010
R. LopezR. LopezRP
2.0111220
C. CarrascoC. CarrascoRP
1.0000000
Team9.0622450

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • F. Griffin
    90 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      30%·87.2 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      26%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·79.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Alvarez
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • CU
      44%·82.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      28%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      60%·82.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      27%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.2 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • M. Perez
    86 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      36%·82.5 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      35%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      2%·89.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Lopez
    35 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      26%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·75.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Carrasco
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      42%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.7 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 22WSHWSH4@ATLATL5
May 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL0
May 24WSHWSH2@ATLATL1today

Season series

ATL leads series 4-3

Apr 20ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Apr 21ATLATL4@WSHWSH11
Apr 22ATLATL8@WSHWSH6
Apr 23ATLATL7@WSHWSH2
May 22WSHWSH4@ATLATL5
May 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL0
May 24WSHWSH2@ATLATL1today
Jul 30WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Jul 31WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 1WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 2WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 1ATLATL@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 2ATLATL@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13043%
ATLATL-15761%

↗1· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 9th Inning

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

F. Griffin

F. Griffin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
O. Albies

O. Albies

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat ATL 2-1. Acu's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 5th Inning · 0-0
+21pp→ 45% WP

Lile · doubled to center.

WSHTop 8th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 80% WP

Garc · ía Jr. singled to right, Wood scored.

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+31pp→ 100% WP

Acu · ña Jr. grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000100102
ATL0000000011

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

1

6

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

7

TB

7

0

HR

0

4

BB

3

5

K

8

16

LOB

23

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8·WSH +130/ATL -157

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Garc 1

0
1

Inn 9

White 1

WSH
ATL

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  3. B9

    Acuña Jr. grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

    −31pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  10. B9

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  11. B9

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  12. B9

    Tromp struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

    −23pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  17. B9

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Chadwick Tromp

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  18. B9

    Ribalta relieved Lovelady

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  19. B9

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  20. B9

    Kim walked, White to second, Riley to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

    +19pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  27. B9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  28. B9

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

  29. B9

    White grounded into fielder's choice to second, Albies scored, Riley safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Nuñez.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

    +13pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·ATL 1

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    64.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.6%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483