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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2WSH
WSH

WSH

26-27

2
0
ATL

ATL

36-17

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,819 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

63.0%

open 63.6% · -0.7

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL67.6%59.0%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 67.2%May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 2 · ATL 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0001100002
ATL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 96
    202
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 96
    290
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    282
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    22
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    142
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    23
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.6pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ATL

★ best
-173DraftKings

edge +6.6pp · implied 60.6%

BookWSHATLBest edge
DraftKings+143-173★+6.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasATL -173

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 2–0.

WSH +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jorbit Vivas

Jorbit Vivas

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH26-27
2
0
ATL36-17
WSH26-27·ATL36-17
WSH

WSH

26-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-22010021
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-44000003
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000002
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44111101
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44010003
SPRINT29.395
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-44000003
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
2-44121100
SPRINT26.838
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
1-33010001
Team7-33332722215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.0000170
B. LordB. LordRP
3.0100030
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
1.0000010
Team9.01001110
ATL

ATL

36-17

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000004
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.354
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
0-33000002
SPRINT25.716
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-33000002
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000001
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-22000000
C. TrompC. Tromp★C
0-33000000
Team1-29290100111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
5.06222102
D. DoddD. DoddRP
3.0100030
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000020
Team9.07222152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    80 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      49%·78.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·93.9 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Lord
    47 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      23%·84.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      55%·83.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.2 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    87 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      40%·84.5 mph·48% whiff
    • FF
      26%·92.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.6 mph·63% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      1%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Dodd
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      43%·86.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.0 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      55%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      27%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

1

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 22WSHWSH4@ATLATL5
May 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL0today
May 24WSHWSH2@ATLATL1

Season series

ATL leads series 4-2

Apr 20ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Apr 21ATLATL4@WSHWSH11
Apr 22ATLATL8@WSHWSH6
Apr 23ATLATL7@WSHWSH2
May 22WSHWSH4@ATLATL5
May 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL0today
May 24WSHWSH2@ATLATL1
Jul 30WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Jul 31WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 1WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 2WSHWSH@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 1ATLATL@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 2ATLATL@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+14341%
ATLATL-17363%

↗6· 5.7h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
J. Vivas

J. Vivas

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat ATL 2-0. Garc's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+18pp→ 65% WP

Garc · ía Jr. grounded into double play, pitcher to catcher to first, Wood to second, Ruiz to third, Vivas out at home.

WSHTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 62% WP

Vivas · homered to right (364 feet).

WSHBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 63% WP

Albies · popped out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0001100002
ATL0000000000

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ATL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Crews 1

1
0

Inn 5

Vivas 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
ATL

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  3. B9

    Albies grounded out to third.

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  9. B9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  10. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  11. B9

    Olson grounded out to first.

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

    −5pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  14. B9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Matt Olson

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  15. B9

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  16. B9

    Harris II struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

    −6pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  21. B9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  22. B9

    Lovelady relieved Lord

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  23. B9

    Young in center field.

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  24. B9

    Crews in right field.

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  25. B9

    Wood in left field.

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  28. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  29. T9

    Vivas flied out to right.

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·ATL 0

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

0

7

Hits

1

1

Errors

0

16

TB

1

2

HR

0

2

BB

1

15

K

11

11

LOB

10

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +143/ATL -173

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    64.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.