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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
TOR

TOR

23-27

2
0
NYY

NYY

30-21

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
40,249 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

NYY no-vig %

60.8%

open 59.3% · +1.5

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL64.8%55.3%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 63.5%May 20, 6 PMMay 21, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 2 · NYY 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR1000001002
NYY0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.2pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

NYY

★ best
-149DraftKings

edge +6.2pp · implied 57.3%

BookTORNYYBest edge
DraftKings+124-149★+6.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 97
    142
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    290
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 94
    202
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    202
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 93
    262
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 92
    111
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.53

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-163

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, May 21·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYY -149

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into New York Yankees and beat them, 2–0.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Spencer Jones

Spencer Jones

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR23-27
2
0
NYY30-21
TOR23-27·NYY30-21
TOR

TOR

23-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44111112
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-22110020
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.838
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
3-44030000
SPRINT27.354
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-22000002
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-44000001
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-44010000
SPRINT24.64
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. GimenezSS
0-11000000
Y. PinangoY. PinangoLF
0-11000001
Team7-33332721310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FisherB. Fisher★RP
1.1000140
A. MackoA. MackoRP
1.1100020
S. MilesS. MilesRP
4.1200160
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000100
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000020
Team9.03003140
NYY

NYY

30-21

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-22000020
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000004
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-44000002
S. JonesS. Jones★RF
1-33010001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000002
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
0-22000011
Team3-29290300314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
5.0311370
Y. CruzY. CruzRP
0.1100000
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0000010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
0.2111001
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
2.0200020
Team9.07223101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • S. Miles
    63 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      33%·80.8 mph·45% whiff
    • SI
      32%·96.4 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      48%·88.4 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      39%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Macko
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      40%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      15%·78.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • SL
      83%·86.5 mph·75% whiff
    • FS
      17%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      100%·82.7 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    95 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.6 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.1 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cruz
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SL
      55%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      45%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·99.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0today
Jun 12NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Jun 13NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Jun 14NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 14NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 15NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 16NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 21TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 22TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 23TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

TORTOR+12445%
NYYNYY-14960%

↘12· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 7th Inning

TORTOR
E. Clement

E. Clement

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

S. Miles

S. Miles

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
S. Jones

S. Jones

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 53% WP

Varsho · doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.

TORTop 7th Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 75% WP

Springer · homered to left (359 feet).

NYYBottom 8th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 30% WP

Escarra · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR1000001002
NYY0000000000

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · NYY won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Varsho 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  3. B9

    Goldschmidt struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  8. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  9. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  10. B9

    Chisholm Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

    −4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  16. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  17. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  18. B9

    Bellinger lined out to first.

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

    −4pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  22. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  23. B9

    Hoffman relieved Rogers

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  24. B9

    Pinango in right field.

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  25. B9

    Straw in left field.

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  28. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  29. T9

    Springer grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Valenzuela out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

0

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

14

TB

4

1

HR

0

3

BB

3

10

K

14

15

LOB

12

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·TOR +124/NYY -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Carlos RodonNYY
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.