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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL
TB

TB

35-19

0
0
NYY

NYY

35-22

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 8.0 · -1.0

NYY no-vig %

56.3%

open 50.4% · +5.9

+0.5-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 6.5TOTAL60.3%46.4%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 49.8%May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 0 · NYY 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

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© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.3pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

TB

★ best
+118DraftKings

edge +6.3pp · implied 43.9%

NYY

no live price

BookTBNYYBest edge
DraftKings+118★-142+6.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasNYY -136

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Postponed
TB35-19
0
0
NYY35-22
TB35-19·NYY35-22
TB

TB

35-19

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
NYY

NYY

35-22

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0today
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2

Season series

TB leads series 4-0

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5
May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0today
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2
Jul 6NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 7NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 8NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 9NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 23TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 24TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

↗1.5pt· 5.7h

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↘1.0pt· 5.7h

Moneyline

TBTB+11347%
NYYNYY-13658%

↘31· 5.7h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7·TB +113/NYY -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

-1.0 since open

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Carlos RodonNYY
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    51.8%

    P(NYY win)

    44%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    51.8%

    P(NYY win)

    11%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.8%

    P(NYY win)

    45%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 94
    304
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    300
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 91
    151
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 88
    103
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 88
    191
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 87
    100
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →