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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIN
HOU

HOU

19-30

3
6
MIN

MIN

22-26

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
11,488 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

MIN no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL55.1%47.0%MIN NO-VIG %May 17, 5 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

HOU 3 · MIN 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000003003
MIN010203006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.75

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-119

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -115

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Houston Astros, 6–3.

MIN +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total pushed exactly on 9.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Vazquez

Christian Vazquez

C

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU19-30
3
6
MIN22-26
HOU19-30·MIN22-26
HOU

HOU

19-30

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-33001000
SPRINT28.483
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44010012
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-33010021
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-55021000
SPRINT25.920
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
0-33000000
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-44000001
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT28.278
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT29.395
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
1-22111020
SPRINT22.90
Z. ColeZ. ColeLF
0-11000000
Team7-3131373066
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. ImaiT. Imai★SP
4.2533052
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
1.1433200
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
2.0000110
Team8.0966362
MIN

MIN

22-26

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000000
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33210011
SPRINT26.632
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-33110000
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-33100011
SPRINT27.457
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
3-44234200
SPRINT25.18
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44012002
SPRINT28.688
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33010000
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-33010001
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-33010001
Team9-3030696236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RojasK. Rojas★RP
4.0200130
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods RichardsonSP
1.0100110
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
1.0100100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.2333100
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.1000010
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
0.1000200
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2000010
Team9.0733660

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • T. Imai
    74 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.8 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      46%·87.6 mph·52% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.3 mph·67% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      28%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Murray
    25 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      24%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·89.6 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • K. Rojas
    46 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.0 mph·45% whiff
    • SL
      28%·89.4 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    31 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      42%·91.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Orze
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FS
      63%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      26%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Woods Richardson
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      17%·74.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Morris
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.1 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      36%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·86.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 18HOUHOU3@MINMIN6today
May 19HOUHOU2@MINMIN1
May 20HOUHOU1@MINMIN4

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

May 18HOUHOU3@MINMIN6today
May 19HOUHOU2@MINMIN1
May 20HOUHOU1@MINMIN4
Jun 30MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 1MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 2MINMIN@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-10551%
MINMIN-11553%

↗1· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Vazquez

C. Vazquez

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

T. Imai

T. Imai

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H

MINMIN
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

K. Rojas

K. Rojas

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat HOU 6-3.

Win probability

MIN vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 63% WP

Martin · flied out to right.

MINBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 88% WP

Bell · homered to left (381 feet), Larnach scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 0-3
+11pp→ 91% WP

Dezenzo · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walker out at second, Alvarez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000003003
MIN01020300—6

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · MIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Bell 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Bell 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Keaschall 2

3
0

Inn 7

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
MIN

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  2. T9

    Walker grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  9. T9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Christian Walker

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  10. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  11. T9

    Alvarez struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

    +5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  17. T9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  18. T9

    Rogers relieved Gómez

    ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  19. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  20. T9

    Paredes walked, Vázquez to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

    −5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  26. T9

    Yoendrys Gomez pitches to Isaac Paredes

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  27. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  28. T9

    Peña fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

    +4pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·MIN 6

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

3

Runs

6

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

7

TB

16

0

HR

2

6

BB

3

6

K

6

23

LOB

9

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9·HOU -105/MIN -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.7%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 92
    32
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 92
    32
    5(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 92
    71
    13(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 91
    63
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 91
    202
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 90
    211
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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