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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BAL
DET

DET

20-32

4
7
BAL

BAL

22-29

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
14,956 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

BAL no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

+0.5-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL58.2%50.2%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 56.2%May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

DET 4 · BAL 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET1012000004
BAL003301007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.4pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

DET

no live price

BAL

★ best
+119DraftKings

edge +13.4pp · implied 42.8%

BookDETBALBest edge
DraftKings-157+119★+13.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -131

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Detroit Tigers, 7–4.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Hao-Yu Lee

Hao-Yu Lee

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET20-32
4
7
BAL22-29
DET20-32·BAL22-29
DET

DET

20-32

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000003
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-11000001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010002
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-44001000
G. WorkmanG. Workman★3B
1-44110003
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
2-33022001
SPRINT27.457
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-33000001
Team7-35354741012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
3.1863072
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.1100120
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.0311000
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.1100200
E. De JesusE. De JesusRP
1.0100010
Team8.014743102
BAL

BAL

22-29

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-55010002
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
3-55230001
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-55020000
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-33114111
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-55000003
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-33120010
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-22110001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010002
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-33222110
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
0-22000000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander3B
1-11010000
Team14-373771462310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. AkinK. Akin★RP
1.0111021
C. BassittC. BassittSP
4.1633040
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2000010
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000020
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.0000010
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0000020
Team9.07440121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    78 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      53%·92.0 mph·15% whiff
    • KC
      35%·77.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Seabold
    34 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      59%·92.6 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      24%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      35%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      47%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Jesus
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      19%·85.4 mph·100% whiff

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    58 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·70.5 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      5%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·71.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      2%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • CH
      56%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Wells
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      31%·85.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.0 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      42%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      63%·84.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      38%·83.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

14

4

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7today
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7today
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1
Jul 27BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 28BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 29BALBAL@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10948%
BALBAL-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

DETDET
H. Lee

H. Lee

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 8 H

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

BAL beat DET 7-4. Alonso's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+32pp→ 65% WP

Alonso · homered to right (391 feet), Holliday scored and Henderson scored.

DETTop 4th Inning · 4-3
+13pp→ 60% WP

Lee · reached on infield single to third, Torkelson scored, McKinstry to second.

BALBottom 4th Inning · 4-6
+20pp→ 79% WP

Holliday · homered to left (337 feet), Cowser scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET1012000004
BAL00330100—7

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

7

7

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

14

TB

24

1

HR

2

0

BB

3

12

K

10

12

LOB

21

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8·DET +109/BAL -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Win probability

BAL vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

DET won 1 · BAL won 3

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
3

Inn 3

Lee 1

Alonso 3

2
3

Inn 4

McKinstry 1

Holliday 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
BAL

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  2. T9

    Workman struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  8. T9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Gage Workman

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  9. T9

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  10. T9

    McKinstry flied out to left.

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

    +0.8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  20. T9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Zach McKinstry

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  21. T9

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  22. T9

    Pérez struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

    +2pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  26. T9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Wenceel Perez

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  27. T9

    Nunez relieved Wells

    ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 4·BAL 7

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 4·BAL 7

  30. B8

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 7

Player projections

BAL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 94
    911
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    63
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 93
    17
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 92
    62
    21(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 92
    92
    20(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    214
    20(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
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