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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TB
TB

TB

11-7

5
3
CHW

CHW

6-13

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,128 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL49.8%41.8%CHW NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 5 · CHW 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0001001035
CHW0010010103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    308
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    123
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 93
    63
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 93
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 92
    138
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -131

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 5–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Everson Pereira

Everson Pereira

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB11-7
5
3
CHW6-13
TB11-7·CHW6-13
TB

TB

11-7

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-66000001
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-55121101
SPRINT25.716
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33100011
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-55120000
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
0-11000010
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-22000001
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
0-11100010
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
2-44020001
SPRINT26.225
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-44012011
SPRINT27.765
J. ArandaJ. Aranda1B
0-11100021
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
2-22021000
SPRINT26.838
J. FraleyJ. FraleyRF
0-33000003
Team9-37375951710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. MatzS. Matz★SP
5.1622141
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.2100110
K. KellyK. KellyRP
2.0111121
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000100
Team9.0833472
CHW

CHW

6-13

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-55111100
SPRINT28.381
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-44000003
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
2-33121110
SPRINT27.457
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-33011011
SPRINT24.12
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
1-22010001
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33000010
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-22010000
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
0-44000000
C. MontgomeryC. MontgomerySS
0-11000010
T. PetersT. PetersCF
0-22000001
Team8-3333383247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeasureJ. Leasure★RP
1.1000100
A. KayA. KaySP
2.2411110
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0100110
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.1111130
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
1.2100030
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.1233111
L. SimsL. SimsRP
0.2000210
Team9.09557101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Matz
    74 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.4 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      27%·82.7 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      18%·82.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      65%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      15%·78.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Jax
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      36%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Baker
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      70%·96.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      30%·83.3 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • A. Kay
    71 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.0 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    35 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      66%·99.3 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      20%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      16%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Sims
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      48%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      24%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      84%·97.6 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      16%·85.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Apr 14TBTB8@CHWCHW5
Apr 15TBTB8@CHWCHW3
Apr 16TBTB5@CHWCHW3today

Season series

TB leads series 3-0

Apr 14TBTB8@CHWCHW5
Apr 15TBTB8@CHWCHW3
Apr 16TBTB5@CHWCHW3today
Jul 31CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming
Aug 1CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming
Aug 2CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-13157%
CHWCHW+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 39pp · Top 9th Inning

TBTB
R. Palacios

R. Palacios

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

S. Matz

S. Matz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
E. Pereira

E. Pereira

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Newcomb

S. Newcomb

RP

Top reliever

1.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

TB beat CHW 5-3. Caminero's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+30pp→ 83% WP

Pereira · homered to left center (401 feet).

TBTop 9th Inning · 3-3
+39pp→ 55% WP

Caminero · homered to left center (375 feet).

TBTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+33pp→ 87% WP

Feduccia · walked, Díaz scored, Palacios to second, Aranda to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0001001035
CHW0010010103

Period scoring

TB won 3 · CHW won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Vargas 1

1
0

Inn 4

Walls 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Quero 1

1
0

Inn 7

Palacios 1

0
1

Inn 8

Pereira 1

3
0

Inn 9

Caminero 1

TB
CHW

Play-by-play · 675 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 5·CHW 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  3. B9

    Vargas popped out to first.

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  8. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  9. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  10. B9

    Antonacci grounded out to first, Benintendi to second.

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

    −4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  12. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Sam Antonacci

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  13. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  14. B9

    Peters popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

    −7pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  24. B9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Tristan Peters

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  25. B9

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  26. B9

    Benintendi walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

    +10pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

3

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

12

TB

16

1

HR

2

7

BB

4

10

K

7

23

LOB

17

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·TB -131/CHW +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHW vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Chandler SimpsonTB
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    44.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.0%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.2%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381