• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1ATH
ATH

ATH

25-24

6
5
LAA

LAA

17-33

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
24,588 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAA no-vig %

46.8%

open 47.4% · -0.6

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL51.4%42.8%LAA NO-VIG %May 19, 6 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 6 · LAA 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATH21000010116
LAA23000000005

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.1pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

ATH

★ best
+259DraftKings

edge +35.1pp · implied 26.1%

LAA

no live price

BookATHLAABest edge
DraftKings+259★-371+35.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 93
    136
    3(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 91
    113
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 91
    111
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 90
    308
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 90
    1210
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-1/VegasATH -125

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (ATH won by 1). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil

2B

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATH25-24
6
5
LAA17-33
ATH25-24·LAA17-33
ATH

ATH

25-24

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT25.716
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-33100000
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33211021
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-55010001
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-55023002
SPRINT26.735
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-55000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44111112
SPRINT25.920
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
0-44100011
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-11100011
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-11000001
Team6-34346651611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.0555223
L. MedinaL. MedinaRP
2.0100020
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0000010
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000010
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000210
Team10.0655473
LAA

LAA

17-33

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-55000002
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33100020
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-44010010
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-55112101
SPRINT2622
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-33000000
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT27.867
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-44010000
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33100012
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44112102
SPRINT27.251
Team6-3535565347
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
6.0333470
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.1011000
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.2100010
K. YatesK. YatesRP
0.2111111
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
0.1000000
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0110120
Team10.06656111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • M. Leiter Jr.
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      55%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·73.4 mph·— whiff

LAA

  • K. Yates
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      62%·90.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      38%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Silseth
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      40%·88.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

6

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 3-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5today
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2

Season series

ATH leads series 2-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5today
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2
Jun 19LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 20LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 27ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 23LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 24LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH-12556%
LAALAA+10449%

↗2· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 10th Inning

ATHATH
J. McNeil

J. McNeil

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATH beat LAA 6-5. Soderstrom's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

LAA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 9th Inning · 5-5
+34pp→ 50% WP

McNeil · homered to right (364 feet).

ATHTop 10th Inning · 6-5
+34pp→ 75% WP

Soderstrom · tripled to left, Kurtz scored.

ATHBottom 10th Inning · 6-5
+28pp→ 100% WP

Soler · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATH21000010116
LAA23000000005

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · LAA won 1

2
2

Inn 1

Soderstrom 2

Soler 2

1
3

Inn 2

Cortes 1

Lowe 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Kurtz 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

McNeil 1

1
0

Inn 10

Soderstrom 1

ATH
LAA

Play-by-play · 619 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  2. B10

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  3. B10

    Soler grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

    −28pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  5. B10

    Hogan Harris pitches to Jorge Soler

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  6. B10

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  7. B10

    Schanuel walked, Trout to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

    +6pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  13. B10

    Hogan Harris pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  14. B10

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  15. B10

    Trout intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

    +5pp

  16. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  20. B10

    Hogan Harris pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  21. B10

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  22. B10

    Neto grounded out to shortstop, O'Hoppe to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

    −12pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  24. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  25. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  26. B10

    Hogan Harris pitches to Zach Neto

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  27. B10

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  28. B10

    Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

    −7pp

  29. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

  30. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    ATH 6·LAA 5

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

5

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

11

TB

18

1

HR

3

6

BB

4

11

K

7

15

LOB

14

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 9.5·ATH -125/LAA +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.52

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Carlos CortesATH
    1.0± 0.7high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    43.4%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.9%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586