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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIA
COL

COL

0-2

3
4
MIA

MIA

2-0

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
10,160 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL67.6%59.6%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMJun 2, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

COL 3 · MIA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0102000003
MIA001020014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Player projections

MIA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    4.1± 2.0low
  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.9± 2.7low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    69.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    72.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    69.7%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 29, 26sim 99
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 95
    271
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 91
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 91
    273
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 90
    274
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 90
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0/VegasMIA -199

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Colorado Rockies, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (MIA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. RamirezMIA+41.3pp
  2. 2L. HicksMIA+31.1pp
  3. 3M. LorenzenCOL−27.7pp

COL · top performer

COL
Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL0-2
3
4
MIA2-0
COL0-2·MIA2-0
COL

COL

0-2

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
0-440000012.7
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-440100019.5
SPRINT27.148
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-4411000115.9
SPRINT27.969
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-4411210112.7
SPRINT27.867
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-441111013.7
SPRINT24.85
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-330100015.2
SPRINT26.326
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-330000107.1
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-330000025.3
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-330100016.0
R. RitterR. Ritter2B
0-1100000113.3
Team6-33333632110—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
4.173304127.7
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.21000003.1
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
1.10001200.3
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.221101023.4
Team8.01044171—
MIA

MIA

2-0

4
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-4400000310.2
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-4411000010.4
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-3312001041.3
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-2211310031.1
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-4411000018.6
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
3-4403100017.5
SPRINT28.586
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
1-4401000116.7
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-330000016.9
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-440100024.7
Team10-32324104117—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
7.053318226.2
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.01000100.2
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.000001011.4
Team9.06331102—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      27%·84.2 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
  • Z. Agnos
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      27%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      13%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.0 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hill
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      30%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·78.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      17%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      17%·78.1 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      46%·98.2 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.1 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.0 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      58%·91.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      56%·90.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·96.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

Mar 27COLCOL1@MIAMIA2
Mar 28COLCOL3@MIAMIA4today
Mar 29COLCOL3@MIAMIA4

Season series

MIA leads series 2-0

Mar 27COLCOL1@MIAMIA2
Mar 28COLCOL3@MIAMIA4today
Mar 29COLCOL3@MIAMIA4
Jun 30MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 1MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 2MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 2MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+16338%
MIAMIA-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning

COLCOL
E. Tovar

E. Tovar

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat COL 4-3. Hicks's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

MIA vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+22pp→ 65% WP

Tovar · homered to left center (401 feet), Castro scored.

MIABottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+27pp→ 62% WP

Hicks · homered to right (384 feet), Ramírez scored.

MIABottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+21pp→ 92% WP

Caissie · singled to center, Lopez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0102000003
MIA00102001—4

Period scoring

COL won 2 · MIA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Rumfield 1

0
1

Inn 3

Hicks 1

2
0

Inn 4

Tovar 2

0
2

Inn 5

Hicks 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Caissie 1

0

Inn 9

COL
MIA

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  2. T9

    Doyle flied out to center.

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  5. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Brenton Doyle

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  6. T9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  7. T9

    Ritter struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

    +4pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  11. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ryan Ritter

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  12. T9

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  13. T9

    Rumfield fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

    +6pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  18. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  19. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Faucher

    ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 3·MIA 4

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 3·MIA 4

  22. B8

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  23. B8

    Pauley struck out looking.

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

    −0.8pp

  24. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  25. B8

    Conine stole second, Conine safe at third on throwing error by catcher Goodman.

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  26. B8

    Conine stole second, Conine safe at third on throwing error by catcher Goodman.

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 3·MIA 4

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

10

1

Errors

1

13

TB

14

2

HR

1

1

BB

1

10

K

7

8

LOB

15

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 7.5·COL +163/MIA -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872