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FINAL+2MIN
MIN

MIN

25-27

4
2
BOS

BOS

22-29

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
37,105 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0BOS SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.7%47.7%BOS NO-VIG %May 23, 1 AMMay 23, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 4 · BOS 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN2000200004
BOS0001000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.9pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

BOS

★ best
+235DraftKings

edge +10.9pp · implied 28.0%

BookMINBOSBest edge
DraftKings-327+235★+10.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 3-0/VegasBOS -131

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 4–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN25-27
4
2
BOS22-29
MIN25-27·BOS22-29
MIN

MIN

25-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55110003
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
4-55240001
SPRINT26.632
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-55121001
SPRINT27.867
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33001010
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010000
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33001001
O. ArciaO. Arcia★SS
2-44021000
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT26.428
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
0-44000003
Team12-37374124019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
5.0311270
K. RojasK. RojasRP
3.0100130
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
0.2111300
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.1000010
Team9.05226110
BOS

BOS

22-29

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-55010003
SPRINT29.294
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-33110002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000002
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-33120010
SPRINT26.838
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33011011
SPRINT28.790
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
0-22000020
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-22000000
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-33000013
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33001010
SPRINT27.560
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
0-11000000
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
0-11000000
Team5-30302520611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MoranJ. Moran★RP
1.0322010
B. BelloB. BelloSP
5.0820150
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
1.0000000
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
2.0100030
Team9.01242190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    73 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      32%·90.6 mph·57% whiff
    • FS
      12%·90.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Rojas
    45 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Morris
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      50%·79.0 mph·100% whiff

BOS

  • B. Bello
    92 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      41%·94.3 mph·39% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.7 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Watson
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      35%·90.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      20%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Moran
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      40%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

5

4

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2today
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5

Season series

MIN leads series 4-1

Apr 13BOSBOS6@MINMIN13
Apr 14BOSBOS0@MINMIN6
Apr 15BOSBOS9@MINMIN5
May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2today
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+10948%
BOSBOS-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 9th Inning

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 2 R · 1.600 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat BOS 4-2. Jarren Duran's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 72% WP

Martin · doubled to left, Buxton scored, Larnach to third.

MINTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+9pp→ 83% WP

Arcia · reached on infield single to shortstop, Martin scored, Bell to second.

MINBottom 9th Inning · 4-2
+18pp→ 100% WP

Jarren Duran · challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jarren Duran called out on strikes.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN2000200004
BOS0001000012

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · BOS won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Martin 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Rafaela 1

2
0

Inn 5

Sox 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Kiner-Falefa 1

MIN
BOS

Play-by-play · 579 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Jarren Duran challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jarren Duran called out on strikes.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  10. B9

    Taylor Rogers pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  11. B9

    Rogers relieved Morris

    ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  13. B9

    Kiner-Falefa walked, Contreras scored, Wong to second, Durbin to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

    +11pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  21. B9

    Andrew Morris pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 2

  22. B9

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  23. B9

    Wong walked.

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

    +4pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  25. B9

    Durbin to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  26. B9

    Durbin to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·BOS 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

2

12

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

15

TB

6

0

HR

0

1

BB

6

9

K

11

19

LOB

21

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN +109/BOS -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.44

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 96
    293
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    172
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 96
    232
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    124
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    129
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 94
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.