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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CLE
CLE

CLE

32-23

3
1
PHI

PHI

26-27

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
37,808 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

PHI no-vig %

45.1%

open 44.9% · +0.2

+2.0-0.5PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL49.9%40.9%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 49.5%May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · PHI 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000110103
PHI0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best
-103DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 47.6%

PHI

no live price

BookCLEPHIBest edge
DraftKings-103★-127+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -115

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 3–1.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Travis Bazzana

Travis Bazzana

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE32-23
3
1
PHI26-27
CLE32-23·PHI26-27
CLE

CLE

32-23

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
3-44131100
SPRINT27.662
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000000
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-33100010
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT24.96
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.457
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-33010000
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
3-44031000
SPRINT26.530
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-33000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000002
P. HalpinP. HalpinCF
0-11000001
Team9-3232393125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
5.2500260
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
0.1000100
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.2111110
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.1000020
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000010
Team9.06114100
PHI

PHI

26-27

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000013
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-22001011
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.688
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-33010012
SPRINT26.735
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-22000000
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.175
J. CrawfordJ. CrawfordCF
0-22000000
Team6-32321610410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PainterA. Painter★SP
6.1622230
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
0.2100000
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0111011
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100010
Team9.0933251

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • P. Messick
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.8 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    16 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      56%·89.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      25%·79.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      43%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      29%·80.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      17%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Holderman
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      70%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.9 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • A. Painter
    82 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      28%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      41%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      33%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 22CLECLE1@PHIPHI0
May 23CLECLE0@PHIPHI3
May 24CLECLE3@PHIPHI1today

Season series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 22CLECLE1@PHIPHI0
May 23CLECLE0@PHIPHI3
May 24CLECLE3@PHIPHI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

CLECLE-11553%
PHIPHI-10551%

↗3· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CLECLE
T. Bazzana

T. Bazzana

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

A. Painter

A. Painter

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat PHI 3-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 5th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 73% WP

Kwan · singled to left, Schneemann scored, Fry to second.

CLEBottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 80% WP

Bohm · flied out to right.

PHIBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 36% WP

Marsh · tripled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000110103
PHI0000001001

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Kwan 1

1
0

Inn 6

Hoskins 1

0
1

Inn 7

Harper 1

1
0

Inn 8

Bazzana 1

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
PHI

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  3. B9

    Turner struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  10. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Trea Turner

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  11. B9

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  12. B9

    Marsh grounded out to second.

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

    −2pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  16. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Brandon Marsh

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  17. B9

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  18. B9

    Crawford grounded out to second.

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

    −4pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  22. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Justin Crawford

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  23. B9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  27. T9

    Kwan grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

    +0.6pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·PHI 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

3

Runs

1

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

13

TB

10

1

HR

0

2

BB

4

5

K

10

11

LOB

15

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7·CLE -115/PHI -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.99

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.6%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 96
    50
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    51
    22(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 93
    151
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    194
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs