• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3LAA
TEX

TEX

24-26

6
9
LAA

LAA

18-34

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
32,488 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL44.0%36.0%LAA NO-VIG %MODEL 38.7%May 21, 10 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TEX 6 · LAA 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0003011016
LAA402000129

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.0pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
-163DraftKings

edge +2.0pp · implied 59.3%

LAA

no live price

BookTEXLAABest edge
DraftKings-163★+135+2.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesLAA win series 3-0/VegasTEX -163

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Texas Rangers, 9–6.

LAA +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX24-26
6
9
LAA18-34
TEX24-26·LAA18-34
TEX

TEX

24-26

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-22010010
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-55010000
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55122101
SPRINT28.278
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-44000001
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-33210011
SPRINT2744
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
2-44020000
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
2-33121001
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-22012001
SPRINT28.175
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44111101
SPRINT26.838
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-11100010
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-22000000
Team11-35356116236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
3.0666332
C. QuantrillC. QuantrillRP
3.0300100
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0111001
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0322001
Team8.01399434
LAA

LAA

18-34

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-44222200
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44220010
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-55121001
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44210010
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-55000000
W. MecklerW. Meckler★OF
2-33123110
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
3-44131101
SPRINT28.278
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44012001
D. WaltonD. Walton★2B
0-33000010
Team13-36369139443
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. RodriguezG. Rodriguez★SP
5.2744251
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0111100
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
0.1100000
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0100000
M. FarrisM. FarrisRP
1.0111011
Team9.01166362

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAA

  • T. Saucedo
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·86.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

13

6

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 3-0

May 23TEXTEX6@LAALAA9today
May 24TEXTEX2@LAALAA5
May 24TEXTEX1@LAALAA2

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

May 23TEXTEX6@LAALAA9today
May 24TEXTEX2@LAALAA5
May 24TEXTEX1@LAALAA2
Jul 8LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 9LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 10LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 11TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 12TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 13TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 14TEXTEX@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 22LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 22LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 23LAALAA@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 3.2h

Moneyline

TEXTEX-16362%
LAALAA+13543%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

G. Rodriguez

G. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAA beat TEX 9-6. Meckler's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

LAA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 1st Inning · 0-4
+28pp→ 74% WP

Meckler · homered to right center (403 feet), Trout scored and Soler scored.

TEXTop 4th Inning · 3-6
+14pp→ 24% WP

Carter · tripled to center, Burger scored and Foscue scored.

LAABottom 7th Inning · 5-7
+12pp→ 87% WP

Peraza · homered to left center (418 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0003011016
LAA40200012—9

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · LAA won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Meckler 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

O'Hoppe 2

3
0

Inn 4

Carter 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Foscue 1

1
1

Inn 7

Nimmo 1

Peraza 1

0
2

Inn 8

Neto 1

1

Inn 9

Jansen 1

TEX
LAA

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  2. T9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  7. T9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  8. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  9. T9

    Jung grounded out to third.

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

    +1pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  13. T9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  14. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  15. T9

    McCutchen flied out to second.

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

    +2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  17. T9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  18. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  19. T9

    Jansen homered to left (408 feet).

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

    −2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  21. T9

    Mitch Farris pitches to Danny Jansen

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 9

  22. T9

    Farris relieved Bachman

    ·

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  23. T9

    Siri in left field.

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  26. B8

    ·

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  27. B8

    Adell flied out to center.

    ·

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 5·LAA 9

  30. B8

    Chris Martin pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    TEX 5·LAA 9

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

9

11

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

23

TB

26

2

HR

4

3

BB

4

6

K

3

8

LOB

26

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·TEX -163/LAA +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.85

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 93
    116
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 91
    1210
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 90
    1114
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 90
    308
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 89
    126
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    44.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872