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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8ATH
ATH

ATH

24-24

14
6
LAA

LAA

17-32

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
23,803 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.2% · -0.1

-1.0-2.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL58.2%50.1%LAA NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 14 · LAA 6 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH00600214114
LAA0013000206

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.4pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

ATH

★ best
+118DraftKings

edge +17.4pp · implied 43.9%

LAA

no live price

BookATHLAABest edge
DraftKings+118★-142+17.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 90
    136
    3(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 88
    116
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 88
    111
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 85
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 85
    113
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 84
    131
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-1/VegasLAA -142

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 14–6. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATH +1.5 cashed (LAA lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 11.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH24-24
14
6
LAA17-32
ATH24-24·LAA17-32
ATH

ATH

24-24

14
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-44100022
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
3-55235000
SPRINT26.632
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
1-33112001
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-44223111
SPRINT27.148
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
1-55110002
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
3-55233101
SPRINT28.891
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-55110001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-44220001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-44221010
SPRINT27.969
T. SoderstromT. SoderstromLF
0-22000000
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-11000000
Team15-4242141514249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
3.2744321
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
0.1000000
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
2.0100000
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000000
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0222010
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
1.0100020
Team9.01166351
LAA

LAA

17-32

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44110011
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33112120
SPRINT28.688
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
1-55012000
SPRINT26.632
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-55010000
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-55000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-33110001
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.920
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
2-55120001
SPRINT27.251
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
1-22110001
J. LoweJ. LoweLF
1-22012000
SPRINT27.251
Team11-38386116135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP
5.2888280
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
0.1100100
SPRINT27.148
R. JohnsonR. JohnsonSP
2.0455102
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0211010
Team9.0151414492

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • S. Barlow
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • ST
      50%·78.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      39%·75.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      6%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·79.3 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Harris
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·94.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      21%·74.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.9 mph·— whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

11

14

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6today
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 19ATHATH1@LAALAA2
May 20ATHATH14@LAALAA6today
May 21ATHATH6@LAALAA5
May 22ATHATH3@LAALAA2
Jun 19LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 20LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 21LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Jun 27ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 28ATHATH@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 23LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 24LAALAA@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+11846%
LAALAA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

R. Detmers

R. Detmers

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat LAA 14-6. Thomas's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+19pp→ 77% WP

Thomas · doubled to right, Kurtz scored and Hernaiz scored.

LAABottom 4th Inning · 6-4
+14pp→ 32% WP

Grissom · singled to left, Neto scored and Siri scored, Trout to third.

ATHTop 6th Inning · 8-4
+12pp→ 93% WP

Kurtz · singled to center, Heim scored and Hernaiz scored, Langeliers to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH00600214114
LAA0013000206

Period scoring

ATH won 5 · LAA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

6
1

Inn 3

Thomas 2

Trout 1

0
3

Inn 4

Grissom 2

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Kurtz 2

1
0

Inn 7

Gelof 1

4
2

Inn 8

Kurtz 2

Lowe 2

1
0

Inn 9

Hernaiz 1

ATH
LAA

Play-by-play · 645 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  3. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  9. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  10. B9

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  11. B9

    Schanuel reached on infield single to second, Peraza to second.

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  15. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  16. B9

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  17. B9

    Peraza hit by pitch.

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  19. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  20. B9

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  21. B9

    Adell struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  26. B9

    Joel Kuhnel pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  27. B9

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  28. B9

    Soler lined out to third.

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 14·LAA 6

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

14

Runs

6

15

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

25

TB

18

2

HR

1

4

BB

3

9

K

5

12

LOB

20

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 9·ATH +118/LAA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    42.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.9%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.